On: WTF Happened in 1971?

[dTal]

A priori, one wouldn't expect those things to have such a dramatic and sudden effect. If you start from the mysterious graphs of many different financial metrics all going berserk at virtually the same instant - like someone snapping their fingers - you start to ask yourself "what seismic shift happened in the financial world at this point? What fundamental change was made here?"

And if you ask this question in good faith, the answer bubbles right up.

[orf → dTal]

Removing the gold standard caused more people to get divorced?

[_-david-_ → orf]

If the removal of the gold standard caused economic issues as the OP is suggesting then it could have been an indirect cause of divorce. Money is one the largest causes of divorce after all.

[vlucas → orf]

Economic issues leading to money issues, yes - maybe. The leading cause of relationship stress is money. The two most frequently cited causes of relationship stress and divorce are money and sex.

[asfarley → dTal]

What triggered this investigation? I agree that it does look like a phase-change. But did you throw out any graphs that didn't have a phase-change appearance?

I'm genuinely curious. Seems like there are different arguments below-the-surface in this thread.

[dTal → asfarley]

For me, what triggered it was noticing several startling graphs that all seemed to show a) something sudden, b) at the same time. I started collecting such graphs. It appears the author of this website has done the same. Note that all the "commentary" is embedded in the images - there's no indication that the webmaster has any agenda beyond mine (although the various graph publishers might).

I don't really understand your question about throwing out graphs that don't show a phase-change. There are infinite unrelated graphs. "But, your honor, consider all these photos of my client not murdering the deceased!"

[bobwaycott → dTal]

> I don't really understand your question about throwing out graphs that don't show a phase-change. There are infinite unrelated graphs.

Unrelated in what sense? Your example seems a bit of a straw man. What other graphs of economic activity and change do not show a significant and sudden shift at ~1971 (is what I think the parent is asking)?

[asfarley → bobwaycott]

Yes, this is what I meant.

To be clear, I'm not accusing anyone of intentionally being misleading. But consider this process:

1) Notice an inflection

2) Search through a near-infinite number of economic indicators

3) Select those other indicators bearing an inflection-point

This is very non-Baysian.

[asfarley → dTal]

Well it sounds strange the way you say it, but video evidence of someone not committing a crime is often a pretty good alibi, right?

[flukus → dTal]

The data sets are mostly confined to the US but it's describing a global (developed world anyway) issue. In that sense it seems like cherry picking rather than an honest look at the data trying to find a cause.