The ICE auto industry is well aware that it’s game over for all but maybe one or two of them who can survive the transition to electric+autonomy.
It behooves the others to try to minimize expenses and ride the company into the ground. Basically, revenue is going to zero so they want to maximize profits in what’s left of this little corner of the curve.
Lowering emissions standards, even for 5 years, let’s them squeeze out a few more millions.
What sort of bleeds through the electronic industry trade magazines is the auto industry despite what they might say publicly knows electrification is coming. You can tell that because what their suppliers are doing.
1) The strategy I outlined requires them to maintain an internal culture of ignorance about electrification. Which makes it impossible to design a great electric car.
2) The supply chain is non-trivial to negotiate, particularly batteries, which will give their long time competitors an opportunity to eat them.
3) Autonomy is hard and it’s not clear there will be cheap good software that’s available to license
4) Car dealers don’t want to cannibalize their ICE inventory by marketing electrics. ICE makers are legally tied to the dealers.
All of these are solvable, but I don’t expect more than 1 or 2 will be able to solve all 4.
It behooves the others to try to minimize expenses and ride the company into the ground. Basically, revenue is going to zero so they want to maximize profits in what’s left of this little corner of the curve.
Lowering emissions standards, even for 5 years, let’s them squeeze out a few more millions.