I can't understand how people can still think that technology is somehow going to save us from bad agri practices.
The rise of permaculture/regenerative agriculture practices are some of the revolutions in 'farming' that I believe are what are going to be the basis for people producing food that are reasonable going forward. Cooperating with nature instead of fighting it is continually being proven to be the best practice for growing food from a environmental and deliciousness perspective.
Every time I see an article about farmers having some kind of trouble, their crops are one massive monoculture. It's not natural, it's not sustainable, it's destructive for the environment, and that party is going to be over in the future. Go look at the permaculture forests that people have established and you'll be shocked at the production, lack of work required (after some years, of course), and complete lack of chemical/nutrient input.
Was recently driving in the midwest US, hadn't been there in years, and at first the farmland seemed nice, but then as it went on for hours of driving, as far as you could see, just plowed fields forever, for monoculture crops, with minimal to zero habitat for wildlife... it became very ominous feeling, realizing that this is millions of square miles, nearly as industrial as a Houston refinery zone...
People believe technology will solve the day because it has every time single time so far. As we get better and better it looks like divorcing from nature is going to be the best approach.
We are going to make to growing all our food in giant box farms.
The simplest and most glaring issue is the Sun itself. Only a few hours a day for plants. Water is a massive issue! Huge swaths of the earth have very limited rainfall or access to fresh water. Factory farms can make efficient use of its water supply rather than watching the ground soak it up. Pesticides can be used sparingly when the whole environment is controlled.
I'm willing to bet that within 30 years a very large chunk of food grown to eat directly (strawberries, avocados, oranges, etc) will be box farm grown and the transition of wheat and corn will have started.
"Only a few hours a day for plants."
About half the day is decidated to sunshine, give or take. It's been this way for ... since plants.
"Huge swaths of the earth..."
Don't grow there. Don't live there. People don't live in volcanoes for a reason. It's too inhospitable. OTO, you could import your goods via plane/copter/whatever if you're brave. Good on you.
We're already able to grow tropical fruit 1,500 feet up in the freezing Alps with no (artificial) chemicals/fertilizers/pesticides and effective (natural) water management. Can't imagine it will be much more difficult in growth friendly places.
Yes, Sepp Holzer! It's refreshing to see other people, especially among the HN demographic, to know of work like his and permaculture in general given the general obsession with specific myopic forms of technology (like to whom you're replying here); i.e. I still see permaculture as a kind of technology, just a different kind than what most modern conventional farms use.
That's a really neat idea which I'm fond of, and it would certainly help with things like exploring other planets!
Sadly, I've looked into it extensively, and the costs are way too high in comparison with outdoor farming. There are a few niche scenarios where you can get it to work, but they have to be priced at the high end. Things would need to get horrifically bad with the climate before the equation would change much. Indoor farming also couldn't be done at nearly the same volume, and expanding capacity would be very slow.
I'm optimistic that in the long run, we'll find sources of nourishment which can be grown quickly in compact, easily managed closed-loop environments with minimal inputs... however, after the disillusionment of trying to find progress toward this end the real world, all I can say is we need a LOT more people working on it.
I work in agtech so I can speak to some of your concerns.
> people can still think that technology is somehow going to save us from bad agri practices
So one thing we're doing at my company is we're trying to de-commoditize agriculture. You're right in that the current agriculture practices are all about creating a baseline crop for the commodities trading market. The truth is that these practices vary from farm to farm, and there are quantifiable metrics you can track in crops. These crop qualities vary wildly and certain buyers of the major crops want different qualities. If we can turn our major crops from being treated as commodities, we can incentivize more sustainable agricultural practices that both create better crops for the economy and the environment.
> Cooperating with nature instead of fighting it is continually being proven to be the best practice for growing food from a environmental and deliciousness perspective.
Agreed. This is exactly what we're working on because we recognize that fighting the environment with harmful pesticides and herbicides has long-lasting residual effects on the soil and the economy.
> Every time I see an article about farmers having some kind of trouble, their crops are one massive monoculture
Are you referring to the fact that there are 4 major seed producers for 60% of the seed sales on the planet? [1]
The economics of a farm are such that, because of commoditization, the margins are so razor thin that the only way to turn a profit (which they aren't, because prices on major crops have plummeted in the last 4 years) is to have a highly refined process from the purchase of the seeds, to fertilization, to hydration, to transport. The whole process is streamlined in a way that doesn't benefit the end consumer. Again, there are people hard at work to break this bad habit. Even still, there is plenty of variability in the end result of those crops, which is why crop quality can vary wildly depending on things such as rain, nitrogen in the soil, etc.
A great primer on the lifecycle of a year in farming in the US is This Blessed Earth.[2] If you're interested in understanding the agriculture economy from a farmer's perspective, this is a must read.
The rise of permaculture/regenerative agriculture practices are some of the revolutions in 'farming' that I believe are what are going to be the basis for people producing food that are reasonable going forward. Cooperating with nature instead of fighting it is continually being proven to be the best practice for growing food from a environmental and deliciousness perspective.
Every time I see an article about farmers having some kind of trouble, their crops are one massive monoculture. It's not natural, it's not sustainable, it's destructive for the environment, and that party is going to be over in the future. Go look at the permaculture forests that people have established and you'll be shocked at the production, lack of work required (after some years, of course), and complete lack of chemical/nutrient input.