Timing has a great deal to do with it as well as with anything. Environment and timing can make a 10x coder even better or just average, depends on where the rest of the market is at and if the market timing is right. Though a good developer, 10x level, can probably find something that is timed right to attack, as an aspect of a better than average developer is also finding something the market needs.
When you combine some new technology innovation or advancement, and you are a product focused skilled developer, it can multiply skill even more.
Power or access in the environment/team, along with time, is also key to a 10x or multiple developer output. Almost all really good developers have power to change things or design them from scratch, an 'open' mode where they can research, a shipment focused 'closed' mode and this can make developers more productive.
As an example, John Carmack, probably a 1000x developer. He was also perfectly timed for graphics/rendering/game development to carry the whole industry forward with Doom/Quake and on. The timing was key as he was perfectly positioned with very high skillset and new technology that others weren't in as much yet, he set the standards. As time went on and the new knowledge was taken up by others, with him at Id competing was harder, still a 10x but the timing and environment are much different.
Carmack was also given lots of power and free reign, another aspect of being a 10x+ that is key. If something needed to change to make them more productive, he was the architect and was allowed to make it happen. That access is harder to obtain on established teams without really good prototyping of entire systems that can show how things are better done another way. Lack of power leads to lots of time explaining and selling your ideas over just doing them. The smaller the company the better for the 10x unless the reputation is already established.
Carmack also did some space research with Armadillo and is at Facebook/Oculus now, where he is still amazing but the timing and environment are much different. Competition and funding were harder in the space venture. VR he helped get going while at Id and even helped Palmer Luckey early on, but also the industry is fairly established. There are still leaps to take there and he will probably be part of those with better access.
Shipping is a key to a 10x as well. Carmack shipped.
As with anything successful: timing, environment and access (funding / power) are key elements of allowing good product shippers/creators/developers to flourish and ship.
Carmack was also given lots of power and free reign, another
aspect of being a 10x+ that is key. If something needed to
change to make them more productive, he was the architect and
was allowed to make it happen. That access is harder to obtain
on established teams
Yes. This is so key. This is why I (and many others) bristle at the "10x" stuff. It's so context-dependent.
Put John Carmack to work on a legacy maintenance program at some bank where he's not allowed to make any real decisions that affect the workflow or overall codebase, and that guy's no longer a 10x programmer. He's not even going to be a 1x programmer until he learns all of the archaic domain knowledge relevant to his new, miserable job.
Lots of people are stuck in situations like this: 10x (or 1000x) talent stuck in situations where they're performing at 1x or worse.
Likewise, lots of people with 1x talent are perceived as operating at 10x levels relative to their peers in the organization because they've got favorable circumstances: they're allowed to work on greenfield projects while others are stuck doing maintenance, they're allowed to choose tools and stacks that suit their own preferences and skillsets, etc. Or they're the ones that wrote the initial code and are the only ones who really understand it.
I've been in both those situations, and others.
At various points in my career I've operated at 1/10x, 1x, and 10x relative to my peers.
It sure wasn't my work ethic or talent that changed.
Now, some may say that part of being a "10x" developer is striving to put yourself in situations where you can actually be a 10x developer. Well, if folks want to define it that way, then sure. But that sort of presupposes some kind of ideal free market in which people are free to change jobs as often as they like until they have found their own personal little 10x niche. Certainly we all should strive to do that, and many of us do, but there are significant barriers to doing that.
I think this perspective is totally underrated. When I compare a lot of people's careers I see these dynamics jumping out at me a lot. Timing timing timing. Autonomy too. When you're decent at what you do and you're allowed to do it, it turns out you can do good things. When you do good things you get more of the right kind of experience. Gaining that experience is rare in the first place thus making you even more rare and valuable (in the right context).
I'm glad I'm not the only one out there that sees it like this.
When you combine some new technology innovation or advancement, and you are a product focused skilled developer, it can multiply skill even more.
Power or access in the environment/team, along with time, is also key to a 10x or multiple developer output. Almost all really good developers have power to change things or design them from scratch, an 'open' mode where they can research, a shipment focused 'closed' mode and this can make developers more productive.
As an example, John Carmack, probably a 1000x developer. He was also perfectly timed for graphics/rendering/game development to carry the whole industry forward with Doom/Quake and on. The timing was key as he was perfectly positioned with very high skillset and new technology that others weren't in as much yet, he set the standards. As time went on and the new knowledge was taken up by others, with him at Id competing was harder, still a 10x but the timing and environment are much different.
Carmack was also given lots of power and free reign, another aspect of being a 10x+ that is key. If something needed to change to make them more productive, he was the architect and was allowed to make it happen. That access is harder to obtain on established teams without really good prototyping of entire systems that can show how things are better done another way. Lack of power leads to lots of time explaining and selling your ideas over just doing them. The smaller the company the better for the 10x unless the reputation is already established.
Carmack also did some space research with Armadillo and is at Facebook/Oculus now, where he is still amazing but the timing and environment are much different. Competition and funding were harder in the space venture. VR he helped get going while at Id and even helped Palmer Luckey early on, but also the industry is fairly established. There are still leaps to take there and he will probably be part of those with better access.
Shipping is a key to a 10x as well. Carmack shipped.
As with anything successful: timing, environment and access (funding / power) are key elements of allowing good product shippers/creators/developers to flourish and ship.