Stealth launch in plain sight. This thing's true form, a full web app SDK with built-in distribution and a podcast directory-like, sandboxed-widget version of the App Store is going to be unveiled at WWDC. Seriously, I'd give this at least a 50% probability.
This is Apple's preemptive assault against the WebOS Ares SDK. They know they could have a situation on their hands if HP doesn't botch the next generation of WebOS devices.
That sounds great to me, but I'm inclined to take pronouncements of this sort with a grain of salt. It was only a couple months ago, after all, that some industry watchers proclaimed that the new Apple TV with AirPlay was a trojan horse that would conquer every American living room and topple the cable TV industry.
But here's the thing: When Apple releases something that they think is significant, they say so.
Why would Apple create a serious competitor to their proprietary app stack when it's doing so well though? Seems to me the last thing Apple wants is to encourage cross-platform native-quality apps right now.
On apps sold through the App Store, Apple makes 30 percent. On free iAd-supported apps it makes 40 percent.
Personally, I don't think iAd Producer (or its sibling) will create "native-quality" apps. I can't imagine games like Infinity Blade being created in HTML5. But surely, database viewers (like many apps in the App Store are) should run fine.
That's the point – it's intended as anything but a serious competitor to the native stack. The thing is, to make a simple widget app (comparable to the built-in weather app), you don't need the kind of low-level access that a complex game like Infinity Blade needs. When you're making something that could be built in HTML5, why should you have to bother with an NSAutoReleasePool?
There's room for a secondary, more abstracted dev environment for the iPhone. Palm is proving it with Ares.
This is Apple's preemptive assault against the WebOS Ares SDK. They know they could have a situation on their hands if HP doesn't botch the next generation of WebOS devices.