> HVAC, plumbers, machinists, welders and electricians are all facing massive shortages and offer a skilled, well paying job with benefits.
Exactly. These jobs pay well because for the past couple of decades, people have followed the common advice and overwhelmingly chosen to got to university instead of learning trades. Supply has thus become smaller than demand and wages have risen as a result.
Now that the tides are turning, if people start following the new increasingly common advice to learn trades instead of getting a degree, what will happen? If university enrolment falls by 50% and trades college enrolment increases by the same amount, what kind of job market the new cohort of tradespeople will have upon graduation? If enrolments remain like that for 20 years, what would the job market for trades be in 2040?
I sincerely doubt that blue collar jobs can offer better long-term career prospects, stability, and lifetime earnings than white collar ones. But then again, having gone through Alberta's recession and seeing what it did to blue collar jobs, I might be overly pessimistic.
I think that many skilled blue collar jobs will be very late to never automated. I think a lot of white collar jobs will be automated, possibly within the career lifespan of today’s 17-year olds choosing a path.
The overall costs are lower and the time from completion to realization that either it’s not for you or the job market is saturated (even just locally) is much quicker.
You’re less likely to end up with a glut of HVAC repairmen or welders versus something like lawyers or (would be) programmers.
Exactly. These jobs pay well because for the past couple of decades, people have followed the common advice and overwhelmingly chosen to got to university instead of learning trades. Supply has thus become smaller than demand and wages have risen as a result.
Now that the tides are turning, if people start following the new increasingly common advice to learn trades instead of getting a degree, what will happen? If university enrolment falls by 50% and trades college enrolment increases by the same amount, what kind of job market the new cohort of tradespeople will have upon graduation? If enrolments remain like that for 20 years, what would the job market for trades be in 2040?
I sincerely doubt that blue collar jobs can offer better long-term career prospects, stability, and lifetime earnings than white collar ones. But then again, having gone through Alberta's recession and seeing what it did to blue collar jobs, I might be overly pessimistic.