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I read once someone's estimate that the probability of introducing a bug when fixing a bug is somewhere between 20 and 50 percent. That probably also applies if it's not a bug - if you're just cleaning up something. That should make you think twice.

In particular, it might make you think about game theory. Is the expectation value of this change more bugs, or less? Will making this change have at least a 50% chance of preventing a future bug?




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