It's very clear that the next 30 years will be very different from the last 30 years. I doubt we'll ever come back to the same era of global trade anytime soon.
Trade will continue as before between all actors. What's going on is that great powers are wary of sourcing smart things that can be turned off or reprogrammed remotely (think OTA updates) from other great powers. So trade in these smart things is shakier. It was good before when we ignored the issue!
As more products become smart things, this will impact trade somewhat.
For the smaller countries, there's no change from the atomic era: they'll source their smart thing from their protector power. There's a lot of friction getting there though, as many of them defected and sourced from a cheaper alternative.
I really think that social media and the broader internet has accelerated the collapse of the old world order. The institutions that were owned or partly controlled by a small minority no longer have as much control over national narratives.
There will be a period of chaos as the old world and new world duke it out.
Except that we are heading toward 3 antagonistic blocks. A western democratic capitalist block. A Chino-Russian illiberal capitalist block, and an islamist theocratic block. With additional internal tensions within these blocks like in the good old days of the cold war.
Or we were too relaxed during the 2nd phase, until Russia annexed Crimea, Iran kept sponsoring their terrorist organisations, China started building military bases in the South China Sea to intimidate its neighbours and it's general secretary went on to hint at annexing Tawian by force. I'm not surprised that the current US administration is taking action against China. This should have started in 2014.
This level of one sidedness scares me. It's just as easy for a Russian/Chinese/Iranian/etc citizen to say the same about US.
I'd say it's easier, if you take into account the ludicrous number of military bases the US has all around the world, the constant involvement in one or more wars, the infinite sabre rattling with North Korea, the unconditional support for what ever the hell Israel decides to do.
I don't think US is more or less naturally inclined to be an international bully, but they have the capacity and actually do it on a scale no other country can since the USSR dissolved.
And definitely didn't station its own or NATO military forces and installations on the border with Russia and in Turkey in direct contravention of agreements with Russia.
No sir, they definitely didn't do that before Russia countered by doing the same.
Nope. We have always been at war with Eurasia. Move along citizen.
My country used to have a direct border with the USSR. We'd much rather have NATO defensive instalations and troops on our territory, rather than Russian tanks and little green men with guns. The last time that happened we had 50 years of communism, the USSR took away several parts of our territory, effectively plundered our country's resources and invaded neighbouring countries in order to "restore order".
