> That seems plausible, but also pretty speculative and it seems like there could be negative consequences too. For example, if the Chinese market switches over to Chinese chips, a lot more money will be invested in Chinese chips and they will probably develop more quickly.
Those negative consequences presume that the Chinese won't have the goal of switching over to domestic chips if they have access to American chips, but I think that's false. They've shown a strong desire to pursue import substitution and then turn those companies into international competitors. Denying the American supplies forces them to switch before they're ready, rather than when they're fully ready.
It's also not guaranteed that the Chinese investments will bear fruit. For instance, China has been trying to acquire modern jet engine technology for decades and decades, and still hasn't succeeded. IIRC, jet engines and microchips have a major characteristic in common: most of the magic is in the manufacturing techniques and those are difficult to reverse engineer from finished products.
Those negative consequences presume that the Chinese won't have the goal of switching over to domestic chips if they have access to American chips, but I think that's false. They've shown a strong desire to pursue import substitution and then turn those companies into international competitors. Denying the American supplies forces them to switch before they're ready, rather than when they're fully ready.
It's also not guaranteed that the Chinese investments will bear fruit. For instance, China has been trying to acquire modern jet engine technology for decades and decades, and still hasn't succeeded. IIRC, jet engines and microchips have a major characteristic in common: most of the magic is in the manufacturing techniques and those are difficult to reverse engineer from finished products.