We're still in a boom period, where many start-ups/VCs are operating with deep pocket books and instructions to scale fast at any cost. During the next bust, lean will come back in fashion.
It's an interesting question, because Fed rates are going to be held permanently low due to the US Government's debt / interest costs (and the next ~$18 trillion that will be stapled on over the coming ~15 years). Those Japan-style permanently low rates will always press upwards on risk capital markets like venture capital. It spurs capital to seek higher returns versus the weak yields everywhere else (whether treasuries or other). Start-ups will become more valuable persistently due to this effect, at least for the next 10-15 years prior to the end fallout once the US Government is formally drowning in debt interest cost (which is when the really bad consequences kick in, like full blown aggressive currency debasement to chop the debt down and stealth default; everyone will be taking real haircuts then, anyone with assets in dollars anyway).
I think it would take a very severe recession, in the 2009-2010 style, to hammer venture capital down considerably. Instead I expect Japan stagnation to continue to envelop the US economy, and for the exact same debt-laden reason. Ever slower growth, low traditional inflation (higher real inflation from currency debasement QE), debt taking up an ever larger share of capital available for investment, stagnant productivity, stagnant wages. With the enormous amount of wealth in the US, trillions of dollars will always be looking at the venture capital market in a given decade. ~2012-2035 will probably be the best years for venture capital in US tech history, and broadly the best context for start-ups, that we'll ever see. It's early in the loose money sloshing period from perma low rates, but not yet late such that you're eating an always-on QE real-value debasement hammer constantly (which sucks down your real value creation, as you run uphill against the Fed while it tries to debase government debt to keep the US Govt solvent).
