Your second point is just re-enforcing what he said. If MacBooks move ARM, they will have solved developer piece. Since so many developers use Apple stuff, ARM will be native and servers would follow.
In the 90s you could see a shift from people having a SPARC workstation in their office for service development, to just using a x86 PC with Linux or Windows on. Then after while developing for Linux/x86 and deploying to Solaris/SPARC made little sense, so you just put it on Linux/x86 in the end. The thing is maybe 95% of things just work and you spend all your time sorting the other 5%.
At least for now, the ‘move to ARM’ is just wishful thinking by developers who think they can shovel phone apps onto the desktop. Unfortunately phone apps on the desktop stink so that’s not going to be a big thing.
Moving to ARM has nothing to do with moving phone apps to desktops.
Almost all iOS apps already run natively on x86 today. When developers use the iPhone simulator they are running natively compiled apps linked against an x86 version of the iOS framework. If all Apple wanted to do is allow iOS apps to run without any usability changes on Macs that would be easy (and ugly).
In the 90s you could see a shift from people having a SPARC workstation in their office for service development, to just using a x86 PC with Linux or Windows on. Then after while developing for Linux/x86 and deploying to Solaris/SPARC made little sense, so you just put it on Linux/x86 in the end. The thing is maybe 95% of things just work and you spend all your time sorting the other 5%.