https://slatestarcodex.com/2018/08/01/cancer-progress-much-m...
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Official statistics say we are winning the War on Cancer. Cancer incidence rates, mortality rates, and five-year-survival rates have generally been moving in the right direction over the past few decades.
More skeptical people offer an alternate narrative. Cancer incidence and mortality rates are increasing for some cancers. They are decreasing for others, but the credit goes to social factors like smoking cessation and not to medical advances. Survival rates are increasing only because cancers are getting detected earlier. Suppose a certain cancer is untreatable and will kill you in ten years. If it’s always discovered after seven years, five-year-survival-rate will be 0%. If it’s always discovered after two years, five-year-survival-rate will be 100%. Better screening can shift the percent of cases discovered after seven years vs. two years, and so shift the five-year-survival rate, but the same number of people will be dying of cancer as ever.
This post tries to figure out which narrative is more accurate.
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Why would you consider smoking cessation not a medical advance? Prevention plays a big role in modern medicine and is based on medical advancement, how else would one even know that e.g. smoking is linked to cancer, an active lifestyle decreases cancer etc.
Smoking cessation is clearly an advancement in public health. We've definitely gotten better at getting people to quit smoking (and helping them to do so).
In this context, I read "medical advancement" as "increased effectiveness of medical intervention". Under that interpretation, it's dubious to claim it is an advancement. I mention this as the definition since it constitutes how helpful it is to visit a physician.
Another interpretation would be that the advancement of "knowing smoking cessation is a good idea" is fairly old at this point, and most have agreed on it for decades.
Also, an increase in heart diseases will lower cancer deaths.
In first world countries, death is caused by very roughly 1/3 heart diseases, 1/3 cancer, 1/3 others. More heart diseases mean less cancer and vice versa.
More skeptical people offer an alternate narrative. Cancer incidence and mortality rates are increasing for some cancers. They are decreasing for others, but the credit goes to social factors like smoking cessation and not to medical advances. Survival rates are increasing only because cancers are getting detected earlier. Suppose a certain cancer is untreatable and will kill you in ten years. If it’s always discovered after seven years, five-year-survival-rate will be 0%. If it’s always discovered after two years, five-year-survival-rate will be 100%. Better screening can shift the percent of cases discovered after seven years vs. two years, and so shift the five-year-survival rate, but the same number of people will be dying of cancer as ever.
This post tries to figure out which narrative is more accurate. """