> 1. China has attracted many billions of dollars in investment and outright purchases from Western companies
Not Western, the West and US in particular never were the no.1 investors in China. China was at all times bad at soliciting foreign money. Claiming foreign capital as a reason for China's past growth is like claiming that electric trains are running on gasoline. Most of that growth was from internal sources. That's beyond any dispute.
> 2. Tariffs and Trade Wars – President Trump and President Xi Jinping have pushed their trade war to the brink of disaster.
China and USA can mutually embargo each other tomorrow, and it will be a just a needle prick for both. USA and China have really little economic interdependence, completely contrary to the popular opinion. Though China will fare a little bit better, as it trades in more elastic goods, and will find markets to replace the US faster.
> 3. In terms of psychological advantage, US has the upper hand (my rephrasing)
And that, the only thing that's true. Despite all of above being relatively insignificant, the US side managed to make it sound like the end of the world was coming, and even convince many people in China of that. In fact, the prime majority of recent deflationary wave in China was due to people who were closing down and panic selling businesses that were perfectly fine.
> 4. “These China-U.S. tensions are real, and it’s a long-term problem I don’t want to deal with. I want to find other suppliers in other countries and even completely move to another country for manufacturing. It’s just not worth the long-term risk anymore.”
The prime majority of China's problems are fully internal, and completely orthogonal to the trade disputes. If something will sink China, it will be its own baggage of troubles.
> 1. China has attracted many billions of dollars in investment and outright purchases from Western companies
Not Western, the West and US in particular never were the no.1 investors in China. China was at all times bad at soliciting foreign money. Claiming foreign capital as a reason for China's past growth is like claiming that electric trains are running on gasoline. Most of that growth was from internal sources. That's beyond any dispute.
> 2. Tariffs and Trade Wars – President Trump and President Xi Jinping have pushed their trade war to the brink of disaster.
China and USA can mutually embargo each other tomorrow, and it will be a just a needle prick for both. USA and China have really little economic interdependence, completely contrary to the popular opinion. Though China will fare a little bit better, as it trades in more elastic goods, and will find markets to replace the US faster.
> 3. In terms of psychological advantage, US has the upper hand (my rephrasing)
And that, the only thing that's true. Despite all of above being relatively insignificant, the US side managed to make it sound like the end of the world was coming, and even convince many people in China of that. In fact, the prime majority of recent deflationary wave in China was due to people who were closing down and panic selling businesses that were perfectly fine.
> 4. “These China-U.S. tensions are real, and it’s a long-term problem I don’t want to deal with. I want to find other suppliers in other countries and even completely move to another country for manufacturing. It’s just not worth the long-term risk anymore.”
The prime majority of China's problems are fully internal, and completely orthogonal to the trade disputes. If something will sink China, it will be its own baggage of troubles.