Trump is on the out it 2 or 6 years. Xi potentially has far more staying power which makes the long term risks much higher.
The regular party shifts in the US actually add quite a bit of stability to the system where dictatorships can more easily enter a downward spiral. Xi’s early term has seen a rather stark consolidation of power in the name of anti corruption policies, but don’t be fooled it’s a classic political move aiming for a long term in office.
Remeber Mao’s long term was associated with huge issues. China’s growth has come when the upper echelon’s have been relatively unstable.
Yes. The current law in China forbiddens to stay more then 8 years in power, so we can have some hope Mister Xi will sail as smoothly as possible to the end of his mandate term
...without putting in risk the world's long term peace and growth wishes and the Hopes of the chinese commoners of a more "european meaning of liberal" society ,
It means , more individual freedom and respect for peoples religion, sex orientation, traveling in and out the country, things like this, that give a good "air of freedom" to a place.
Mister Xi makes the chinese people scared of loosing, or to see the reversion, of the achievements and improvements and progresses that were made in this field of "micro-freedom" for decades.
But "If you see turtle on a tree, you deduce someone has put it there, cause turtles don't climb trees" , So...
...His vice president is the next president, as Mister xi was the vice-president of the one before him. Thats the unwritten rule. So....
HIs vice-president is the for a reason, and he was not appointed by Mister Xi, he was "swallowed" by Mister Xi, and tolerated, and it was a Business Trade, if you know what I mean, so....
The vice-president is almost as powerful as him, you can be completely sure of that. This the way china goes, it is not like other places. "No Elections" there, my friend.
And there is the prime-minister, same thing, is a "partner" of Xi, is not an "underling" by any means...
So, they are there and we have Hope.....
n.a:
The "liberal in the u.s. meaning", I mean , economy "laissez-faire" , in the trivial sense of it, the chinese economy is wildly free to run desregulated, for instance, a minority of workers are registered and pay labor taxes, and the gov does not care for the huge majority of workers and bosses that don't pay any labor taxes and are unregistered. So , it is already pretty "micro-liberal", in the economic sense.
Well It was detached but thanks Cris, I really have forgot, I saw this probably last year and the brain didn't want to let it in to protect 'him'self : D :D
Yes, the hope is that "it" is still scheduled to step down, just the limitation for a new mandate was removed...
Trump is most likely to be replaced with somone with at least nominally the opposite platform. Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump, ? is really not more of the same. Hell, he already got thrashed in the last election. It may not look like progress, but people are willing to tackle each sides failures to score points. This tends to remove the absolute dumbest policies.
Mao on the other hand was able to double down and maintain power through the great Chinease famine. This was after a policy of killing off at least one land owner in every village. It’s hard for most people to get just how quickly things can deteriorate without external corrections.
People who vote populists have both fickle loyalties, and short memory. The OP is right. I myself began to sense the trend back in nineties, back then there were centrist ultrapopulists, now the cohort catering to their electorate just changed their purely nominal titles from centre to right.
Trump did better during his mid-terms then practically any predecessor and his approval ratings were recently higher then Obama at the same period of his presidency.
They lost the house, that’s the real test of a president’s midterm. It normal to lose some seats and same thing happened to Obama, but even still the shift was unusually large.
Such shifts are likely very good for countries over time.
The biggest risk for China is the system failing. Mao was being given bad data because the system in place rewarded people lying to those above them. This becomes common in many dictatorships. Eventually you get a lot of ‘dumb’ choices because accurate information is really important for any government to function.
> [...] his approval ratings were recently higher then Obama at the same period of his presidency
That doesn't look to be correct. Scroll down on this page [1] for approval, disapproval, and net approval comparisons between Trump and all past Presidents back to Truman at the same points into the term.
