Superpowers aren't going to use nukes on each other, due to the threat of MAD. Terrorists may be able to steal a nuke and deploy one for their nefarious reasons. Lets say a terrorist group gets a briefcase nuke from somebody, then blows it up in a major city.
500+kt is strategic level, if superpowers used it we're all screwed. But the typical nuke is tactical-level, or ~10kt or so. And tactical-level nukes could be theoretically stolen by groups (there are way more tactical nukes than strategic ones).
We're looking at ~half a mile radius that's blown up, but otherwise a survivable blast. There are rumors that as the USSR collapsed, it lost track of a number of their small tactical-nukes (even if they kept good tabs on their strategic nukes).
It seems far more likely that the next nuke to be used will be a smaller tactical nuke, probably in the hands of terrorists.
The whole point of MAD is that they are perfectly willing to use nukes on eachother. For MAD to work, the threat must be credible. You can't both say that there's nothing to worry about, and claim that MAD works. [1]
A launch in response to a false alarm, a poor decision, or a miscommunication of launch codes are all possible outcomes of the current way that nukes are handled by Russia and the United States. [2]
Of all the things I am concerned about, 'Terrorists stealing a nuclear weapon and blowing it up ten city blocks from me' ranks so far below 'Some idiot in Washington/Moscow/A radar station in Greenland/A submarine off the coast of Kamchatka makes the wrong decision, and ends the world', or 'A bug in the Russian Dead Hand system[3] results in a full nuclear attack against the United States', it's not even worth worrying about.
> There are rumors that as the USSR collapsed, it lost track of a number of their small tactical-nukes (even if they kept good tabs on their strategic nukes).
Nuclear weapons have a shelf-life, and require constant maintenance. Anything that may have been lost 3 decades ago is more likely then not to be junk.
[1] For MAD to actually work, both sides must have perfect information, believe that their opponent has perfect information, be rational, believe that their opponent is rational, to never make a mistake, and assume that their opponent never makes a mistake. [4] There are fairy tales that are more plausible then this. Every year that the current situation continues, we are taking another spin at Russian Roulette.
500+kt is strategic level, if superpowers used it we're all screwed. But the typical nuke is tactical-level, or ~10kt or so. And tactical-level nukes could be theoretically stolen by groups (there are way more tactical nukes than strategic ones).
We're looking at ~half a mile radius that's blown up, but otherwise a survivable blast. There are rumors that as the USSR collapsed, it lost track of a number of their small tactical-nukes (even if they kept good tabs on their strategic nukes).
It seems far more likely that the next nuke to be used will be a smaller tactical nuke, probably in the hands of terrorists.