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“I'm confident he had good ideas. I'm also confident he had plenty of horrible ideas...”

... as you walk along you path you meet a man. 50% if the time he tells you sage advice that makes you a multimillionaire and 50% of the time he tells you sage advice that doesn’t make you richer. What do you value the mans afvice as?

It’s not a cult or a conspiracy when what the other part is selling actually materializes.




Does your evaluation change if, instead of making you fantastically rich his advice makes him fantastically richer?


If everyone has stock options, this isn’t quite true. And not sure about the eningeers, but the execs at Apple seem to be doing pretty well.


How many times can I ask his advice? If many times, I value it at over a half-million dollars a trial.


Sounds like the expected value of his advice is a half multi-millionaire, so yeah you should take it!




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