i've lived in kuwait as recently as 2017 - there is a general air of despair over all industry. when the oil prices took their recent nosedive, all projects were cancelled and the country took a dive into austerity. The projects were re-started in other forms when the oil prices went up but the writing on the wall became clear to everyone. lots of educated well off kuwaitis have purchased homes abroad for "re-settlement",nearby europe being a popular choice(italy in particular).
i imagine war,chaos and a re-ordering of nation boundaries is going to be the inevitable result of the decline of oil.
If oil is the only resource then why would boundaries get redrawn? Saddam wanted Kuwait for the oil reserves and not much else.
Many gulf countries rely on foreign labor for “ work locals aren’t willing to do”. They can drastically cut back on that and reduce the local pop by half or more in some cases.
For the same reason, but the opposite direction? Does Kuwait (in this example) have an identity strong enough that it out lasts its oil reserves, or does it faction back out among its neighbors as migrant workers disburse "home" (or the next richest country or what have you)?
Might not require wars to be fought, but might still mean borders get redrawn in the gulf region when the economics shift.
As one of the Arab leaders said, something along the lines of "my grandfather rode a camel, my dad a Jeep, I a Mercedes. But my grandson will ride a camel."
