> Anyone, even low-income earners, can put small amounts into Bitcoin and it will retain value in the longer term.
Will it? The one thing that Bitcoin has not been noted for is keeping a stable value. Even that's fine, as long as the value doesn't go down - nobody complains that the value isn't stable if the value keeps going up. And, Bitcoin has... um... had been doing fine on that front. Now it's not. And I don't see evidence that it will be a good store of value in the future. I hear argument, but the available evidence is not for Bitcoin being a stable store of value.
Take any point in Bitcoin's history and compare its value then to three years earlier. There is no case where it was worth more three years before. Sure, you can't predict the day to day price swings because the demand is not going to be predictable like the supply. The question is, will demand go up in the long term?
But look at it another way. 1 Bitcoin is still 1 Bitcoin even after 100 years, and still 1/20999999 of the total number of Bitcoins ever created. It's an extremely stable store of value. Stability which was previously unheard of. The problem is that you are valuing it in terms of an asset that is far more likely to fail, given its current trajectory. You can't keep printing and borrowing forever.
Saying 1 Bitcoin is 1 Bitcoin isn't sensible. 1 dogecoin is 1 dogecoin. Hey, I have a currency, chrisbucks. There will only ever be 6 chrisbucks. Want one?
And Chrisbucks are the reason why altcoins have no long-term value. If anyone can create coins then there's an infinite supply and their value will go to zero. Bitcoin is the only system which has not attempted to inflate the supply beyond the originally programmed supply. The original supply was necessary because it was the first asset of its kind.
> Everything will eventually be priced in Bitcoin.
Objection, your honor. Assumes facts not in evidence.
We get it, you've bought in to the idea that Bitcoin is the one true currency. (That's why a statement like "1 Bitcoin is still 1 Bitcoin even after 100 years" makes sense to you.) The rest of us, however, are not sold on this. We suspect that 100 years from now one Bitcoin will get you exactly nothing of value. Speaking to us from a perspective that Bitcoin is the one true currency is completely unpersuasive to us. If you want to convince us, you need to tell us something that makes sense in our viewpoint.
> Take any point in Bitcoin's history and compare its value then to three years earlier. There is no case where it was worth more three years before.
That's a decent attempt at doing what I asked for. Unfortunately, I find it less than persuasive. It's an asset that has a total history of 10 years; there's a pretty small sample size here.
The people on the outside aren't really relevant to the value and market price of Bitcoin. The price is a reflection of the activity of the market participants economic equilibrium. Non-participants can gawk at the price, but so long as there are enough participants using the system, trading and creating wealth then the system will continue to grow, and attract more participants one would assume (although this is not necessary). Eg, your opinion of a foreign currency and their monetary policy makes little difference to them and the forex price until you participate in their economy.
All true. And Bitcoin could have a real value long-term (decades), if enough people believe (and continue to believe) that it does.
The forex example is a bit off, though. If I don't believe the price of the Euro, for example, well, there's still a ton of stuff being produced in countries that use the Euro, and they trade with other countries, and that sets a price for the Euro in relation to those other countries. But how much stuff is produced in places that use Bitcoin?
Perhaps I should have said in "places" that use Bitcoin, because it doesn't have to be countries. But how much stuff is for sale only in Bitcoin? That's where Bitcoin is going to have a price as a currency. If there aren't many things with Bitcoin-only prices, then Bitcoin can still have a value, but it's value is more like gold - as an investment that's not subject to inflation. Even as that, it can have a value forever - gold's done pretty well at that, after all.
But I still think it's too soon to see if Bitcoin will do that. Gold has several millenia of being accepted; Bitcoin has 10 years. We'll see what happens in the long term.
Will it? The one thing that Bitcoin has not been noted for is keeping a stable value. Even that's fine, as long as the value doesn't go down - nobody complains that the value isn't stable if the value keeps going up. And, Bitcoin has... um... had been doing fine on that front. Now it's not. And I don't see evidence that it will be a good store of value in the future. I hear argument, but the available evidence is not for Bitcoin being a stable store of value.