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British industry growth has become unstable rather than higher since the pound collapsed.

British exports have mainly gone up because gold (which doesn’t come from the UK, it just happened to be stored there) is being moved out of the country in economically significant quantities.

https://www.ft.com/content/0407854e-f9d0-11e6-9516-2d969e0d3...

This isn’t to say the Euro is brilliant or not, I don’t have the knowledge necessary to argue that topic pro or con.




The pound hasn't collapsed, that's why. Look at a graph of GBPUSD. The pound spent all of 2017 increasing in value, and you'll see that by the start of 2018 the pound had erased the entire drop that followed the EU referendum - it was back to the value it was at the start of 2016.

The fluctuations since then have been within the same sort of range as is normal for such a currency: the fall since April is of about the same size as the falls in July 2011, Summer-Winter 2014 etc.

The narrative that the UK economy or currency is collapsing is trivially disproven by simply looking at a graph.

With respect to gold, the story you linked to says it's being moved by Chinese investors as a hedge against problems with their own currency. It's unrelated to the politics of the EU.


Before looking at the numbers you need to understand what the numbers actually mean. The gbp value has indeed collapsed. Whoever is telling the contrary is plainly lying. The gbp eur fx before the Brexit was over 1.40, now it is 1.11. Obviously you look at the gbp usd graph that has nothing to do with the strength of the gbp because the major business partner of the UK is the EU, not the US, and by far. The gbp usd graph that you are using as a proof of your fantasies just highlights that the USD also lost value in the last two years. Can I please know where do you live? I live in UK and I can attest for sure to the GBP collapse and the economy that is growing at half the pace as before. I lost thousands of pounds already because of the Brexit.


You lost thousands of pounds already? How did you manage that?

The UK economy has grown strongly since the vote. If you look at the GDP data you'll see there's hardly any difference in the last few years:

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth

Note that Q1 GDP growth is usually revised upwards some time after publication, so I'd expect Q1 2018 to come into alignment with the other years after enough time has passed.

May I suggest that if you managed to lose large sums of money in an environment where the economy is growing and GBP is behaving as it normally does (and not "collapsing" as you put it, unless you think USD is also "collapsing"), then maybe the fault lies with you instead of Brexit?

As for where I live, that's got no relevance to the correctness of my arguments, has it? But I'll give you a hint - GBPCHF shows a similar pattern as GBPUSD. At the start of this year, the currency pair was at the same place it was in April 2016.

Your belief that the UK economy is doing badly just isn't grounded in anything concrete. At best you can say the Eurozone may be recovering somewhat. You clearly want to believe leaving the EU = sky falling, but it's just not - as evidenced by the fact that people are still moving to the UK in huge numbers!


https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/gdp-growth-annua... Don't you notice anything between before June 2016 and after? Before was growing at 2.2%, now it is growing at just 1.2%. To me 1.2% seems pretty close to half of 2.2%. I lost thousand of pounds because I had to spend money abroad and thanks to the collapsing value of the pound I had to spend much more. Where you live has a huge importance because you clearly have no idea of the current economic scenario in the UK. The evidence is all in the numbers that you try to ignore or to manipulate to justify your agenda. But numbers don't lie and everyone can verify that as I said just before the Brexit the annual gdp growth was 2.2% and now is 1.2/1.3%. The GBP before arrived to 1.43 on the EUR now it is at 1.11. The net migration from the EU is at its lowest in 5 years at just 100K people. These are the raw and pure numbers, not your fantasy that UK economy is the same as before.


Like I said, you have to be careful with recent GDP figures because Q1 is always revised upwards - there's some repetitive statistical flaw in the way the ONS calculates these things, it's always the same problem.

It's possible the figure for 2018 will be slightly lower in the end, we'll have to wait and see. But GDP growth went from 3% to 2% between 2015-2016 and nothing much was happening then, so again, you're taking perfectly normal and quite small fluctuations in economic indicators and linking them all to Brexit, which is logically unsupportable.

As I said before, the strengthening of the Euro is related to economic changes in the eurozone and not anything to do with Brexit. That can be easily seen by just comparing GBP vs other currency pairs. Your trip cost more because Europe became less poor, not because the UK did.

As for the implication I somehow don't know what the UK is like, knock off it mate. I visit the UK every month or two because I work for a company based there, and actually am British myself. I am very familiar with how it's doing, and it's doing fine. Stop assigning arbitrary fluctuations in a single exchange rate to your personal political biases.


> just 100k people

So more people than not still see the UK as better than elsewhere. Call me when migration turns negative.


Brexit still didn’t happen and the net migration collapsed.


GDP is a flawed metric.


Yes, but until they’ve got a better one, we’re going to keep using it.


> Look at a graph of GBPUSD. The pound spent all of 2017 increasing in value, and you'll see that by the start of 2018 the pound had erased the entire drop that followed the EU referendum - it was back to the value it was at the start of 2016.

GBP/USD:

* 7 Jan 2016: 1.46

* 20 Oct 2016: 1.22

* 15 Dec 2016: 1.34

Jan-April 2017 were at the level of early 2016, but still lower than just before the referendum itself.

Then it went back down again. It’s currently 1.31

That graph looks like two patches of normal currency variations separated by a vertical line on 24 June 2016. If that’s not a collapse, what is?




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