Ok, so I'm not disputing that peope born in the 60s had more lead in their blood than people born in the 80s/90s. Additonally, I'm not disputing that lead causes behavioral and physical problems. It definitely does.
However, I would like to see the specific data that says the following (because I'm not seeing it when I read the article):
"Regardless of the crack epidemic in the 1980s, regardless of the decline in public housing in the 1980s, regardless of the rise of police surveillance technology, we have indisputable evidence that lead in the blood causes an increase in crime locally and nationwide by XMeaningfulPercent".
I'd be surprised if one could ever make such a statement.
The data we currently have shows that someone born in 1960 and committing a crime in 1985 has been exposed to lead, but they also might have been exposed to crack. Additionally, declining government project housing provided strong protection for criminals to hide from police, and the police surveillance technology in 1985 was pitiful compared to the massive levels of surveillance now.
None of these factors exist anymore in 2018. Crime is much lower. How can we say which variable contributed in which amount?
> "Regardless of the crack epidemic in the 1980s, regardless of the decline in public housing in the 1980s, regardless of the rise of police surveillance technology, we have indisputable evidence that lead in the blood causes an increase in crime locally and nationwide by XMeaningfulPercent".
> I'd be surprised if one could ever make such a statement.
"We found some cities where crack got big at different times but lead came at the same time"
"We found some cities where public housing declined at different times but lead came at the same time"
"We found some places where police surveillance..."
This is the aforementioned rabbit hole. People will have studied such evidence to various degrees.
Your standards are bullshit and you know it. We can't say such statements of indisputable evidence about anything that happens in the world. Should we throw our hands up and just say, well it could be invisible llamas, or tree gnomes, or the boogey man, or should we use the best available evidence to guide future decisions?
From one of the papers cited in the parent article:
"A growing body of evidence in the social and medical sciences traces high crime rates to high rates of lead exposure. Scholars have shown that lead exposure and crime are positively correlated using data on individuals, cities, counties, states, and nations. Reyes (2007) exploits state-specific reductions in lead exposure due to the Clean Air Act to estimate the effect of lead emissions from gasoline on violent crime. She reports that reductions in childhood lead exposure in the 1970s and 1980s accounted for more than half of the violent crime decline of the 1990s.2 Stretesky and Lynch (2001) estimate that, from 1989 to 1991, counties with air lead levels equivalent to .17 μg/m3 had homicide rates four times as high as counties with air lead levels equivalent to 0 μg/m3. Mielke and Zahran (2012) show that air lead and aggravated assault rates were strongly associated in a panel of U.S. cities. Longitudinal studies of individuals document a positive relationship between pre- and post-natal lead exposure and delinquency (Dietrich et al., 2001) and arrests for violent offenses (Wright et al., 2008). Cross-sectional research on individuals (Denno, 1990; Needleman et al., 1996, 2002) and counties (Stretesky and Lynch, 2004), studies using cross-national panel data (Nevin, 2007), and analyses of national time-series (Nevin, 2000) have yielded similar results."
Are each of these going to be able to factor for every possible confounder you can think of? No. But it's not like they aren't controlling for anything. That's the whole gist of the parent article - three studies using three new ways of controlling for other variables. Have you seen multitudes of studies that point to any of those other confounder you mention having better evidence, across time and geography, while controlling for lead and all the other possible confounders? Again, nobody is arguing that there are no other factors. And nobody has a precise answer on just how much, because it's impossible. But all studies point to: very large effects, still happening in some cases, and largely preventable: https://www.dropbox.com/s/07z65p9a5wdppfl/LifeAfterLead_AEJ_...
I mean I'd say that in civil conversation, face to face. Is swearing the problem? I was providing substantive contributions to the conversation, whereas conversant was, in my opinion, doing neither of these:
> Please respond to the strongest plausible interpretation of what someone says, not a weaker one that's easier to criticize. Assume good faith.
> Please don't post shallow dismissals
But perhaps doing neither of them more "civilly"? I'm genuinely looking for guidance on handling of this thread, not trying to argue. Thanks.
However, I would like to see the specific data that says the following (because I'm not seeing it when I read the article):
"Regardless of the crack epidemic in the 1980s, regardless of the decline in public housing in the 1980s, regardless of the rise of police surveillance technology, we have indisputable evidence that lead in the blood causes an increase in crime locally and nationwide by XMeaningfulPercent".
I'd be surprised if one could ever make such a statement.
The data we currently have shows that someone born in 1960 and committing a crime in 1985 has been exposed to lead, but they also might have been exposed to crack. Additionally, declining government project housing provided strong protection for criminals to hide from police, and the police surveillance technology in 1985 was pitiful compared to the massive levels of surveillance now.
None of these factors exist anymore in 2018. Crime is much lower. How can we say which variable contributed in which amount?