Adobe is already one step ahead. They just announced the "open screen project", which opens up the swf and flv file formats. This also lets people create their own swf runtimes.
Nitot seems to be a little disconnected. He mentions "In HTML 5 there will be video and audio; you won't need Flash for video and audio". However, video and audio are only a small subset of sites that require flash. I think there is a general need for an optimized runtime, especially for things like web-based games and rich presentations, and HTML has a long way to go in supporting these.
However, video and audio are only a small subset of sites that require flash.
Granted, in terms of "number of Flash files downloaded" or "number of sites serving Flash content", the percent of video/audio-only Flash files may be small.
But in terms of "number of Flash files downloaded that people actually came to the site to see" or "number of Flash files people would watch even if they were running Flashblock", I'd guess that audio/video-only files account for almost all of them.
Nitot seems to be a little disconnected. He mentions "In HTML 5 there will be video and audio; you won't need Flash for video and audio". However, video and audio are only a small subset of sites that require flash. I think there is a general need for an optimized runtime, especially for things like web-based games and rich presentations, and HTML has a long way to go in supporting these.