"Once the tech is proven" is the big caveat. This all is a fun thought experiment, but we are nowhere close to the future where this tech is reliable enough to fulfill all of these functions in an economically beneficial way. These companies exist because the VCs have money to burn, and self-driving [X] is the hot trend of the day, but for all the dreams to pay off the tech has to prove out, and I see no evidence in this article that these companies are any closer to solving the real problems of confronting real-world real-weather real-roads autonomous vehicles than anyone else. Not to mention the additional gaps in service. These robot cars can't bring my deliveries to my doorstep; they can't improvise when mapping data is outdated or invalid; they can't understand or react when the product they deliver is damaged or wrong.
The only tipping point we're nearing is when people finally realize that 80% of a self-driving car may as well be zero percent, that the last 20% is way more complicated than anyone wants to admit, and that even to they extent they ever "work", flooding our streets with robot cars is not the ticket to utopia.
No doubt the problems are difficult and time consuming. Self-driving vehicles is the culmination of thousands of technologies coming together. It’s complicated.
And while it may take longer than everyone expects, the demand for a self-driven car is not coming from VC money. People, for the most part, would trade driving for the convenience of doing something else.
I think the force of demand will bring about the technology, sooner or later. It’s difficult technology, but most people don’t think it’s impossible.
I am absolutely with you on replacing family cars. The last 100m problem is really hard and isn’t going to get solved for many real world scenarios any time soon.
However there are a huge range of driving situations in which the last 100m can be designed around self driving vehicles. Many trucking and general pickup/delivery end points could be designed this way. Even many taxi style services could use this approach, with designated parking points for self driving buses and cabs. So I can see near future self driving tech accounting for a significant fraction of road traffic over the next decade, given that it will take time to develop the infrastructure to match.
> situations in which the last 100m can be designed around self driving vehicles
Although that's a true statement, I'd argue that it's essentially meaningless for existing cities on a time scale less than multiple decades. Retrofitting is difficult, expensive, and takes a very long time, if wheelchair accessibility is any example.
The only tipping point we're nearing is when people finally realize that 80% of a self-driving car may as well be zero percent, that the last 20% is way more complicated than anyone wants to admit, and that even to they extent they ever "work", flooding our streets with robot cars is not the ticket to utopia.