I have no idea if he will be successful in a business sense. However, I do think it is unlikely that he will help many people. The economists at Marginal Revolution point to research indicating that betting on weight loss is generally ineffective: people don't lose the weight: http://www.marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2010/09...
Ultimately, if you're taking money from people with the expectation that the vast majority of them will fail, well, that doesn't seem like the kind of business that will generate lots of referrals from happy customers. People generally don't like to share their personal failures. Beyond that, focusing on weight per se seems problematic from a public health perspective. It is extremely difficult to lose weight but also not strictly necessary for health benefits. If you can run 10 miles in an hour, it really doesn't matter what your weight is, and the ability to do is a much better predictor of future health.
I used this site starting around February of this year. I thought it was really helpful and I ended up losing close to 30lbs in 10 weeks because of it (I've also kept it off since then, too). It wasn't really the money that mattered - I guess I saw it as sort of a game and it was fun to try and beat the goals from week to week. Also, having my friends cheer me on helped a lot (you have to have a couple of friends sign up with you to keep you honest). Perhaps I could have done it on my own without this site but the idea really worked for me.
I think it's not really the money that will be the motivator here, I think it will be the 'public' nature of it. If you're seeing that I'm failing, you may think I'm week, or I may want to impress you. I think it's about fail / impress vs. money.
Would be interesting to see some actual statistics from him in a month or two.
Casinos, lotteries, etc are taking money from people with the expectation that the vast majority of them will fail. These businesses are so successful that they are made illegal in some countries.
Is there a http://withings.com integration? If not, why? That seems mind-numbingly obvious. I would consider doing this if there was an integration.
Note that the user experience would be much better too. Rather than need to upload photos, I would just use my scale normally.
Also, you could incentivize the photos by reducing the amount you lose. You could lose less of your bid when you miss a weigh-in by, for example, getting people to join the service. They could then follow your progress to make sure you don't miss your next one.
Finally, I'd make this about a charity and only take a cut of the losses. There isn't much reason you deserve hundreds of dollars for lazy people. This might decrease the success rate but increase your signup rate.
Hey, this is John, I'm Randy's minority partner in the site (and so far, I've lost 43 pounds, though as someone with an interest in the site, my own success isn't really relevant.)
Anyhow, I like the actual foot _photo_, not just an integration. It might just be personal preference. I use a withings scale, and weigh in daily, but then I "capture" that with accountability by taking an actual photo of my actual feet. It's a trivial task for a once-a-week thing, and it brings that integer number into the real world.
As far as the "why not charity", people often ask that. Our feeling is that if you want to donate to charity, great! Donate to charity! Don't entangle that with your goals. Besides, then your interest and the charity's interest are at odds. Consider donating your _winnings_ to charity, so your interests are aligned! You can check out the FAQ on the site for more of our thoughts on that.
The giving lost money to charity for not staying on track thing is basically http://www.stickk.com . The way they've set it up, you can pick the charity you DON'T want to support, so you're still "punished." (You can choose to give the money to "Friend or Foe, Charity, or Anti-Charity," as their FAQ explains.)
14K for a design and 5K for the initial legal work seems pretty steep to me for a completely new, unproven web. Surely it could have been done an order of magnitude cheaper for similar quality, no?
It could have been done for cheaper, especially legal. However, I don't think the design would have been as good for cheaper. Keep in mind those were "retail", I had some "friend discounts" I didn't want to make public.
Legal is tough, the weight loss industry can be kind of scary because people can get hurt. It is especially scary if you are doing something "weird". Most new websites or businesses will not need a custom TOS, PP, etc. They can tweak one that already exists.
I definitely think the design could of been cheaper. You have to hire people for their strengths and it seems these guys' strength is design. I would then outsource the PSD2HTML to a company like P2H.com, or a freelance (who would probably charge less!).
I imagine the design could of been done for half the price, if you spent a bit of time looking on Dribbble or similar, and outsourced the code.
I've come from a background of having to find the cheapest person, but also equally as high in quality, and you find some great places and tricks.
I think this startup would be a great partner for the Biggest Loser TV show. The show could provide the contestant with money and each week the contestant would make money if he/she lost weight. You could incorporate the original idea by forcing them to give some of the money back if they regain weight.
Considering the way you'll make money, I would get a good laugh if you added some advertising to your site for fast food / ice cream places.
Kidding aside, this is an interesting post. I feel like I might have committed less on the design side and then revisited it at some point, but I understand where you're coming from too. Good luck!
This seems really cool and I'm always glad to see entrepreneurs making progress. The only thing that seems kind of odd is that it's a service meant to help you lose weight, yet it directly benefits if you don't lose weight. Though, I'm sure that's what the tips are meant to offset.
Yup. We call the tips "happy" money, and the penalties "sad" money. We like happy money! Plus: what's more valuable -- a site that skims a couple of bucks off of failure, or a demonstrated and proven way for folks to achieve their weight-loss goals? Hell, we'll write a book and get our faces on Oprah! :)
1) Can I lie and say that I lost the weight in order to get my money back?
2) Is there anything out there that works with positive reinforcement for weight loss? In other words, instead of punishing people (which may work for some), reward people with prizes (money, gifts, etc..)
1) You weigh in by taking a picture of your feet on the scale. Sure, you can photoshop it or lean on a table (it's actually kind of hard to do that), but in the end, if you cheat, all you do is get your money back, you don't make money.
2) Pretty much everything out there is positive reinforcement. We try our best to help you succeed, we would rather get a tip than keep your money because you failed to make your goals. For years I would try to lose weight for a couple of weeks and then my life would go back to normal. I wanted something where my life would be WORSE if I failed so I made LIOLI.
2) My own positive reinforcement, after losing over forty pounds with this site, is that I just graduated from "obese" to "overweight" today. HURRAH, I'M OVERWEIGHT! :)
http://www.tikaro.com/2010/09/im-overweight-isnt-it-fantasti...
Disclaimer: I'm r38y's minority partner in the site.
I don't generally explain my downmods, but this one may be worthwhile: That is not a valuable addition to the conversation. Do you think there's a single reader who hasn't already heard that a hundred times? That's just flashing a social signal about how you're in the non-lazy, non-stupid "us", and aren't "them" stupid and lazy? There's quite enough of that on this topic, we don't need more.
Yup! That's right! That's why we don't tell our users HOW to lose weight, but help them set reasonable weekly goals and "punish" them if they don't stick to them.
I know how to lose weight, it's the sticking to it over a long period of time and not procrastinating that is hard. I built this for myself, and it is working great!
Punishing your clients is not a good way for they to lose weight. I propose another solution, when they stick to their goals they should receive a reward that's a better solution, try it and tell us about it. Don't downmod yourself.
