It's an n of 1, but we're nowhere close to 'human driver' levels of safe.
Humans get 1 death per 100 million miles.
Waymo/Uber/Cruise have <10 million miles between them. So currently they're 10 times more deadly. While you obviously can't extrapolate like that, it's still damning.
If you consider just Uber, they have somewhere between 2 and 3 million miles, suggesting a 40x more deadly rate. I think it's fair to consider them separately as my intuition is that the other systems are much better, but this may be terribly misguided.
This is a huge deal.
I honestly never thought we'd see such an abject failure of such systems on such an easy task. I knew there would be edge cases and growing pains, but 'pedestrian crossing the empty road ahead' should be the very first thing these systems are capable of identifying. The bare minimum.
This crash is going to result in regulation, and that's going to slow development, but it's still going to be justified.
Humans get 1 death per 100 million miles.
Waymo/Uber/Cruise have <10 million miles between them. So currently they're 10 times more deadly. While you obviously can't extrapolate like that, it's still damning.
If you consider just Uber, they have somewhere between 2 and 3 million miles, suggesting a 40x more deadly rate. I think it's fair to consider them separately as my intuition is that the other systems are much better, but this may be terribly misguided.
This is a huge deal.
I honestly never thought we'd see such an abject failure of such systems on such an easy task. I knew there would be edge cases and growing pains, but 'pedestrian crossing the empty road ahead' should be the very first thing these systems are capable of identifying. The bare minimum.
This crash is going to result in regulation, and that's going to slow development, but it's still going to be justified.