Theranos had no trouble getting funded and even Walgreens to trust them. They were eventually found out to be charlatans. Just because you can raise money doesn't mean you have anything to back it up. When people are skeptical they sometimes have a grain of truth to it. From what I have read about Magic Leap they seem to have vaporware. Even if they didn't the VR / AR space is getting more and more competitive so the longer they don't release even if they have something it may not even matter.
Usually when people present something that is new an innovative you can understand how they did it. Take for example the new iPhone camera with Face ID. They gave enough details for someone to understand generally how it was done. You can look at the physical pieces of it to see how they did it. Sure Apple may have made some claims that were bending the truth to market it but the technology has applications other than security (animojis for instance). Also, it was an extension of previous technology.
When people do the same analysis with Magic Leap they find that they are outright lying and that they can't actually have anything to backup their claims. Instead they are trying to pass off technology that doesn't have the advantages that they state as something completely different.
Walgreens (and CVS) both also sell homeopathic stuff of all kinds, all over.
Even charlatans can sell stuff and make a ton of money. "Can raise money" or "can trick people into buying" (remarkably similar, really) can not in any way be construed as a validation of a product.
Agreed. Just getting on a store shelf doesn't mean you have a good product, it just means that store believes customers will pay for that product.
Like you said, Walgreens, a major pharmacy specializing in real medicine, sells homeopathic crap. They also sell very unhealthy food and alcohol. They also sell cigarettes. Not because they believe the product is good, but because that product makes them money.
The problem is there are huge gaps between having a great idea, creating something really impressive, and bringing a product to market successfully and selling at scale. That last step is the most difficult of all. Very few companies pull it off.
The best I can tell, once a dev kit is released they still have 3 or 4 years before they will be selling their hardware at a meaningful scale - if everything goes alright. Their burn rate is way too high, guessing by how many people they hired. They will need to have an IPO or they are expecting to raise Uber level funds. Maybe that’s realistic but I wouldn’t bet on it.
That might be the most realistic solution, ironically. They might end up in the bin of start up death from pre-mature scaling.
I have no doubt that someone is going to win big in AR. Apple can hit the ground running with all of these ARKit apps. Unless Apple really screws something up, they will have the software advantage by a wide margin.
I'm not convinced that either Google's Series B investment in 2014 or Sundar Pichai's board seat indicate that Google believe's Magic Leap has a high probability of success. The series B was now quite a long time ago. Google has had no trouble getting in to the same line of business as their own investments or companies were the CEO sat on the board.
And a key part in this is that a lot of experts openly claimed that Theranos was selling snake oil. You can't do those kinds of tests with that little blood.
Usually when people present something that is new an innovative you can understand how they did it. Take for example the new iPhone camera with Face ID. They gave enough details for someone to understand generally how it was done. You can look at the physical pieces of it to see how they did it. Sure Apple may have made some claims that were bending the truth to market it but the technology has applications other than security (animojis for instance). Also, it was an extension of previous technology.
When people do the same analysis with Magic Leap they find that they are outright lying and that they can't actually have anything to backup their claims. Instead they are trying to pass off technology that doesn't have the advantages that they state as something completely different.