There was a recent news article on the developing market for marijuana that addressed this (was posted on HN, too lazy to search, unfortunately).
There are some state regulations restricting grow operations to remain somewhat small, and legal uncertainty has also kept the large players out of the market so far. But the trend was definitely towards consolidation, with wholesale prices dropping something around 70% from their initial levels.
One idea mentioned in the article was indeed marijuanas' character being well-suited for commoditisation, although some growers try to stem the tide by developing high-end brands. I believe they explicitly made the comparison to craft beer, where individual taste is far more different than it is for strains, which are largely defined by their content, and relative amounts, of THC and the other thing. Processing extracted THC into edibles and other largely standardised products also points in this direction.
There are some state regulations restricting grow operations to remain somewhat small, and legal uncertainty has also kept the large players out of the market so far. But the trend was definitely towards consolidation, with wholesale prices dropping something around 70% from their initial levels.
One idea mentioned in the article was indeed marijuanas' character being well-suited for commoditisation, although some growers try to stem the tide by developing high-end brands. I believe they explicitly made the comparison to craft beer, where individual taste is far more different than it is for strains, which are largely defined by their content, and relative amounts, of THC and the other thing. Processing extracted THC into edibles and other largely standardised products also points in this direction.