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I’m going to guess the one way price when completed is going to be more than an airline flight.



Which should tell you what you need to know to understand demand.


I'll place my bets tonight for 2X the fare.


The only upside will (briefly) be not having to deal with the TSA and showing up ~2 hours before the flight. Unfortunately, the TSA is making an appearance in local metro and train systems more and more, so I expect them to show up pretty quickly.

Then we'll have an grossly underestimated project with higher than "expected" costs with high ticket prices and no tangible benefits over the alternative - and likely faster - mode of travel.

And odds are, the system upgrades will need to start immediately so the ongoing maintenance will not be significantly cheaper than construction.

Yay?


The Transbay Terminal is in a lot more convenient location than SFO. Lyft to-and-from the airport adds $60 to your fare.

Also, I don't know what the price model will be. In Italy, for instance, you buy a ticket reflecting the route you want to take and you can get on any train you want. Miss the 4:05? Take the 4:25. I wouldn't be surprised if this was similarly flexible. Most airlines, on the other hand, charge change fees unless you are a frequent flyer.


Sadly, you are probably correct.




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