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It's also long enough for kids to grow up entirely after the ban on tetraethyl lead in gasoline. http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-27067615



Two things bother me about this theory:

* First instinct is that the fall-off should be more gradual if it's based on people's ages, not have that sudden sharp descent. I don't put a lot of weight to this though since the 20-year gap makes it sound like the exposure has to be under a certain age (and so within a relatively small range), which would appear as a relatively sharp drop.

* Second, after noticing the graph doesn't actually look like the one I posted (which jtmarmon posted confirmation to in a google doc), I took a closer look: It claims to be using "violent crimes per 100,000 population", but instead matches this chart from wikipedia [0], which isn't scaled by population - it's using raw numbers from the UCR data tool [1]. If the gasoline line is labeled wrong as well, then there's probably no issue, but if it's labeled correctly then half the correlation for this story isn't actually a correlation. Not sure where to look for that one, though.

[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Violent_Crime_in_the_Unit...

[1] https://www.ucrdatatool.gov/Search/Crime/State/StatebyState....


Remember that lead gas disappeared quickly, and that poor people who commit violent crime get incarcerated and killed.

What happened to poor, mostly black youth in cities was akin to a war — a generation or more lost.


Also the increasing use of effective emissions controls. Before the 90's urban streets often reeked of unburnt fuel spewing from exhausts.




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