Your analysis seems very reasonable, but John McAfree thinks it will go to $1 million. And the reason I think it's not impossible is that only a very small percent of the float is actively traded, so the total market cap really doesn't matter that much.
The higher it goes the less the people invested in it need to sell at all, because they don't have anything better to do with the money.
>The higher it goes the less the people invested in it need to sell at all, because they don't have anything better to do with the money.
But you could say the same thing about gold. I don't have a fantastic historical understanding, but I thought that the price of gold tends to spike as there are issues with fiat currency (war, hyperinflation, and so forth).
On this front there are vast differences: investors in gold and investors in bitcoin are just hugely different groups of people. Switzerland doesn't have a bitcoin reserve the way it has a gold reserve, nor does any other state.
so the comparison is kind of premature on my part, still, if we want to have a price target we need to base it on something.
The higher it goes the less the people invested in it need to sell at all, because they don't have anything better to do with the money.