You're right. There has been no fundamental change, either internal to SV or external, to cause Silicon Valley to lose its status as the epicenter of the technology world and the unparalleled access to capital that the region enjoys [0].
Interestingly, Cleveland in the early 20th century provides a case study that compares favorably to modern Silicon Valley. The key? Access to capital.
First, we have John D. Rockefeller and Standard Oil. Why did Rockefeller move Standard Oil's headquarters from Cleveland to New York City? Two main reasons:
1) a concentration of financiers that he needed to continue to grow his business and
2) oil was flowing to large port cities as the international markets grew exponentially lessening Cleveland's importance in the network. [1]
These were both rational reasons for moving and the second represented a fundamental shift in the oil business.
A research article into Cleveland's entrepreneurial decline in the 20th century points to a similar finding:
"Additional contributing factors may include the destruction of the complementary financial institutions that had supported entrepreneurial ventures in the region and changes in the regulatory regime that advantaged New York and made it difficult for regional capital markets like Cleveland‘s to recover their earlier vibrancy." [2]
In the early 1900's Cleveland was described as such:
"It was also an important entrepreneurial center, with well-developed, largely informal, networks linking inventors to new sources of capital and to product markets." [2]
This sounds a lot like Silicon Valley and especially what you describe in your comment.
[0] Yes, cases could be made that housing in the Bay area, unfavorable immigration climate, increased competition from abroad, and even the maturation of the current mobile environment represent viable threats to the long-term entrepreneurial dominance of the Valley.
[1] Titan: The Life of John D. Rockefeller by Ron Chernow
> There has been no fundamental change, either internal to SV or external, to cause Silicon Valley to lose its status as the epicenter of the technology world and the unparalleled access to capital that the region enjoys [
What about climate change and the impending major droughts in the next 5-10 years?
Interestingly, Cleveland in the early 20th century provides a case study that compares favorably to modern Silicon Valley. The key? Access to capital.
First, we have John D. Rockefeller and Standard Oil. Why did Rockefeller move Standard Oil's headquarters from Cleveland to New York City? Two main reasons: 1) a concentration of financiers that he needed to continue to grow his business and 2) oil was flowing to large port cities as the international markets grew exponentially lessening Cleveland's importance in the network. [1]
These were both rational reasons for moving and the second represented a fundamental shift in the oil business.
A research article into Cleveland's entrepreneurial decline in the 20th century points to a similar finding:
"Additional contributing factors may include the destruction of the complementary financial institutions that had supported entrepreneurial ventures in the region and changes in the regulatory regime that advantaged New York and made it difficult for regional capital markets like Cleveland‘s to recover their earlier vibrancy." [2]
In the early 1900's Cleveland was described as such:
"It was also an important entrepreneurial center, with well-developed, largely informal, networks linking inventors to new sources of capital and to product markets." [2] This sounds a lot like Silicon Valley and especially what you describe in your comment.
[0] Yes, cases could be made that housing in the Bay area, unfavorable immigration climate, increased competition from abroad, and even the maturation of the current mobile environment represent viable threats to the long-term entrepreneurial dominance of the Valley.
[1] Titan: The Life of John D. Rockefeller by Ron Chernow
[2] The Decline of an Innovative Region: Cleveland, Ohio, in the Twentieth Century by Naomi Lamoreaux and Margaret Levenstein http://www.econ.ucla.edu/people/papers/Lamoreaux/Lamoreaux47...