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there seems to be a lot of room for difference, since the segwit2x cancellation notice explicit states that consensus was weak (certainly not 95%):

from https://lists.linuxfoundation.org/pipermail/bitcoin-segwit2x... :

"Unfortunately, it is clear that we have not built sufficient consensus for a clean blocksize upgrade at this time."




That comment is more about a theoretical scenario that actually has solid consensus.

The real problem with segwit2x is that the consensus was dropping and was trending toward a very weak level. It had strong consensus for long enough to do a switchover, as far as I understand, but it didn't take the opportunity and then people eventually started to change their minds.




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