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It seems this problem should be addressed by more energy-efficient Bitcoin mining rigs and changes to the Bitcoin system to improve efficiency over the next 1-2 years.

A related very recent announcement: https://halongmining.com/

>Announcing the DragonMint miner series: The DragonMint 16T miner is the world’s most efficient Bitcoin miner, running faster and cooler than any competing miners. It’s the culmination of over 12 months research and development which has resulted in major advancements in mining technology including a brand new generation of ASIC mining chips. The DM8575 ASIC runs at a staggering 85GH per chip with power efficiency of around 0.075J/GH.




> It seems this problem should be addressed by more energy-efficient Bitcoin mining rigs

That doesn't work. Suppose, as a thought experiment, that every miner is instantly replaced by one twice as efficient. That means only that their owners can now run twice as many miners before the cost of energy makes it unprofitable. The Bitcoin protocol adjusts the difficulty so that, no matter how many miners or how efficient they are, on average a block is found every 10 minutes; it's the reward for these blocks that pays for the electricity, so the total amount of energy used by the Bitcoin network will tend to converge towards the block rewards divided by the electricity costs.


> It seems this problem should be addressed by more energy-efficient Bitcoin mining rigs and changes to the Bitcoin system to improve efficiency over the next 1-2 years.

Not really. The miners calculate their costs versus their gains. If a new rig consumes half of the electricity, they will just buy a second one. If they don't their competitor does.


The Jevons Paradox applies brutally here: more efficient miners just increase the value of bitcoin, potentially drawing in more users and even resulting in a net increase in consumption.


The trick is to make it happen suddenly enough to trigger Bitcoin hyperinflation.




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