"Leading up to the end of September, we saw new-high Model 3 VIN numbers in the wild almost every other day, culminating in number 521.
But since the beginning of October, nothing. I can’t find a single one above 521 with VIN picture evidence on any forum.
It’s unlikely to end up this way, but the sole evidence we have to date is this: Tesla is on track to deliver zero Model 3 units in October.
Of course, I don’t believe it will be exactly zero. However, it’s no longer an impossibility. It’s looking like my previous estimate of 240 units may be way too high."
Tesla says today they produced only 260 vehicles in October--and it's unlikely very many of those got all the way to end users!
From SeekingAlpha October 17: "At this stage, I'll continue to roll the dice one more time in favor of betting that for a third full month, the Chevrolet Bolt EV will out-sell the Tesla Model 3 in the U.S. - and probably by a very wide margin, along the lines or 10:1 or more. Maybe even 100:1 or an infinite margin."
Even if you consider Elon Musk a sort of demigod (as much of the tech industry seems to), the leap from 260 vehicles a month--which indicates the vehicles are still being made mostly by hand--to 5,000 a week is going to be incredibly difficult to make in just a few short months.
What does it mean to "outsell" something when that something is backordered into the foreseable future? Personally I will wait until Tesla goes bankrupt before I buy a bolt but I'm still betting that, despite Tesla's lack of ability to predict their own production capability timeline (uh hello, pretty much every tech company that ever existed), that I won't have to.
In Tesla's case, no. Tesla preorders don't come with a price guarantee, and either the buyer or seller can cancel. It's really just an option on a delivery position.
Now if Tesla had locked in the price on preorders, they'd be in big trouble.
seeking alpha is a user contributed site. they don't predict anything. their authors do. and most off them have terrible track record and are trying to push their newsletters , funds, and other crud on an dwindling supply of dumb mom & pop investors who read the site
I'm not sure at this point, but they used to allow anyone to write articles. You were paid based on pageviews. I put their analysis of companies right up there with Marketwatch headlining a big crash everytime there is a down day in the markets.
Sorry, I thought the analogy was clear, but evidently it wasn't :) "Tesla can remain irrational longer than the investors can continue to bet against it". More of a flippant remark than anything.
"Leading up to the end of September, we saw new-high Model 3 VIN numbers in the wild almost every other day, culminating in number 521.
But since the beginning of October, nothing. I can’t find a single one above 521 with VIN picture evidence on any forum.
It’s unlikely to end up this way, but the sole evidence we have to date is this: Tesla is on track to deliver zero Model 3 units in October.
Of course, I don’t believe it will be exactly zero. However, it’s no longer an impossibility. It’s looking like my previous estimate of 240 units may be way too high."
Tesla says today they produced only 260 vehicles in October--and it's unlikely very many of those got all the way to end users!
From SeekingAlpha October 17: "At this stage, I'll continue to roll the dice one more time in favor of betting that for a third full month, the Chevrolet Bolt EV will out-sell the Tesla Model 3 in the U.S. - and probably by a very wide margin, along the lines or 10:1 or more. Maybe even 100:1 or an infinite margin."
Even if you consider Elon Musk a sort of demigod (as much of the tech industry seems to), the leap from 260 vehicles a month--which indicates the vehicles are still being made mostly by hand--to 5,000 a week is going to be incredibly difficult to make in just a few short months.