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Firebase Predictions Beta (firebase.google.com)
138 points by kawera on Nov 1, 2017 | hide | past | favorite | 55 comments



> reward users who are likely to make in-app purchases

It's nothing new, but I still find it amusing how much the IAP model has borrowed from the marketing handbook of narcotics dealers.


Is this solely using in-app analytics as input for the learning, or other knowledge of users from elsewhere in google?


Right now just analytics, but we are considering other inputs too, as we know many devs have data in other sources which can be used to bolster prediction quality.


So in how many years is Google going to shut down Firebase? It was an acquisition and they don't tend to keep those running for long.


Firebaser here! We've been investing pretty heavily in the platform so I think we will be around for a while. Worth noting that YouTube, Double click and Android were all Google acquisitions too!


Those all provide space for ads. Does Firebase have a roadmap for providing advertising space?


AdMob: https://firebase.google.com/docs/admob/admob-firebase

Also Firebase has a free tier but it does cost money https://firebase.google.com/pricing/


This knee-jerk-ism is tiresome. There are plenty of products that Google has retired, and plenty of products that Google has continued to invest in. Just like any other big corporation.

(acquisition still running, top of my head: Google Docs, Android, YouTube, DoubleClick)


No, it's justified. They earned that reputation.

The problem is the google isn't forthright about it's plans. They just let some products languish forever without any communication. If you're lucky (like a firebase user) you will get a giant code dump of new features after 18 months of radio silence. If you're unlucky (like a google app engine standard user) then maybe they will announce a shutdown. It could go either way - you will never know what's coming. Yes you will get time to migrate away, but you're not really treated like a partner.

At some point they said google code wasn't getting new features because they couldn't find anyone who wanted to work on it. WTF? That's what employees are for right? I cannot understand this company. Why waste peoples time with projects that are just rounding errors next to adwords.


It was probably an unstaffed 20% project all along.


Well it’s so common Wikipedia has a dedicated category for them: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Discontinued_Google_a...


And is it anymore than other big corporation? That pages lists 24 products, which doesn't seem that much to me. There have been plenty of stories about retired products at FB, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, etc.

Im not disputing that Google does this, but ever since Google Reader was stopped this has become a stock comment on basically every HN discussion on Google products (other than search & ads) and has long ceased to have any value at all, and seems to be just accepted as some gospel without any evidence that this is a bigger problem with Google than the other tech giants.


> And is it anymore than other big corporation?

I don't think hk__2 is promoting another big corporation.


I don't think hk__2 was promoting Google.


in jannes' and hk__2's defence, that Wikipedia category page looks very incomplete. I'm sure the number is far higher than 24.

Perhaps it's HN apophenia but Google's record of discontinuance does not seem insignificant - it is valid for anyone to be skeptical of their ability to maintain any newer product in the medium term.

That said, I think anyone who's followed Firebase closely since the acquisition should have reasons to have more confidence in their commitment in this one particular case.


The list forgot "Google Desktop Search" - One of my favorite google product.

I like it so much that I even found a old copy to install on windows 10. 6 years after it is discontinue and still much more useful and much faster than windows 10's search bar.


That’s because it’s a list of discontinued acquisitions. Google Desktop is in the list of discontinued Google software: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Category:Discontinued_Google_s...


Quickoffice and Picasa seem to be in both lists, by the way. Technically the second list should almost be a superset of the first list, I suppose.


They've been releasing new features for it at a pretty steady rate. I think it is a safe bet in terms of sticking around.

It fits in well to the overall Google Cloud Computing offering and has few real competitors in AWS/Azure.

I say this as someone using AWS daily but Firebase for side projects.


They have since acquired more companies to complement the offer and released a new product called Cloud Firestore very recently. They are also doing conferences promoting it in lots of places. Doubt it's going away very soon.


Google is investing a ton of money into their cloud offerings, and it seems like Firebase is a part of this strategy.


Urchin is doing quite well at Google, 12 years after the Google acquisition.


Short promo video on their youtube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORrvrVEHJz4


Will this work in browsers too? It would be very cool if it did


Take a look at https://RetroAnalytics.io - It's a predictive web analytics platform. Similar features to Firebase Prediction though built for the web and mobile and you aren't locked into Firebase.

Disclaimer - I'm the founder :) Would love your feedback !


Firebaser here, not right now, it uses Google Analytics for Firebase data, which is currently only Android and iOS


Doesn't look like it. It looks like it extends Firebase analytics (Mobile only) from my dashboard.


I've played with Firebase but have been exploring GraphQL services recently. Initially http://www.graph.cool/ and https://scaphold.io/

Graph.cool just released their development framework so I may investigate.

I realise Firebase and GraphQL are very different beasts but I think they serve the same market. It would be good to see Firebase at some point offer a GraphQL interface but the data structures are very different.


Do _not_ use Scaphold. They’ve gone completely dark, and haven’t responded to support requests in over a month.

Graph.cool is rad. We used it while migrating to Google Cloud, just so we could be off of Scaphold.


The homepage at http://www.graph.cool/ loads so fast!


Great to see Google entering this space!

My company, Gyroscope Software (getgyroscope.com) does prediction, cohorting and timing of callbacks into mobile games and apps, with plugins for iOS and Unity. We've built a real-time prediction engine to make this happen; we also use some neat tech to get us enough data from the clients to do fast machine learning without the developer having to do any instrumentation, data collection, or other data wrangling - we do this automatically. Happy to answer any questions anyone has.


I think this is interesting, but I'm having trouble seeing how it'll be used. Personally, when I want to do things like this - I roll my own custom solutions because I want more control.

Given that, I guess I'll be giving it a shot (although I think Firebase in general is super over priced)


So what are the better priced alternatives?


I was curious about the answer myself, and bumped into kinto: http://kinto.readthedocs.io/en/latest/overview.html

- Build collaborative applications with real time updates and fine-grained permissions.

- Our JavaScript client for browsers leverages IndexedDB to work completely offline and synchronise data when online.

- It’s even possible for data to be encrypted on the client to keep user data safe on the server.

- Permissions can be set on the stored objects, making it possible to share data between users.

- Kinto is an HTTP API in front of a database. Interactions with the server are simple HTTP requests rather than complex SQL or map-reduce queries. It is meant to be minimalist and simple.

This would be a self-hosted solution. They have a pre-built docker image to spin it up.

Previous HN links:

- 641 days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10994736

- 687 days ago https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10733164


Looks like Kinto uses PostgreSQL as the backend (http://docs.kinto-storage.org/en/stable/configuration/produc...). This was a little buried in the web docs and website.


I've look at that as well, but "scaling production" in 2017 roadmap worries me.

https://github.com/Kinto/kinto/wiki/Roadmap


Have you heard of RetroAnalytics? It's a predictive analytics platform that offers similar features but without the need to be locked into Firebase. https://retroanalytics.io

Disclaimer - I'm the founder :)


What's the pricing model?


We charge a monthly fee which is based on the sessions you are getting and then we have a few different tiers. We should have our pricing up on the site in the next few days and we have a 30 day free trial to make sure you are happy with the product, feel free to reach out to me - david at retroanalytics.io.


For an alternative to the predictive portions just launched, check out https://blog.set.gl/ currently in a free beta.


Use cases vary with your app need, but the Halfbrick (fruit ninja etc) case study might help: https://firebase.google.com/downloads/Halfbrick_Case_Study.p... - we worked with them during the alpha testing and I think their approach will work for a lot of apps.


For what sort of applications is it super over-priced? I'm using the realtime database to build out an app, and if I start scaling my current (beta) usage by 1000x, I'm still only getting monthly bills of $100 or so.

Fear based question: are there applications (hopefully mine) that would scale in an economic way? And there are other use-cases that wouldn't scale?


It really depends on the application. Certainly, everyone love control, but there is a trade off between control and cost. Firebase prediction is simply a simple implementation for some simple use cases, which are plenty.


What kind of revenue should you be earning from a popular app on Firebase to justify the cost of using Firebase (for an indie developer). It looks great, but I'm afraid I won't be able to afford it.

I'm currently researching open source solutions such as Parse.


I haven't used it much but from the pricing page it seems affordable enough. There is also a calculator at the bottom for big apps where you can estimate how much it will cost for the plan at scale

https://firebase.google.com/pricing/


Give Set http://set.gl a look, we are currently in beta. I'd love to hear more about what you are trying to do to see if we can help.


Machine learning problems are unique for each case. How can they apply them all. If it works it will be revolutionary but I guess it won't...


Firebaser here! We don't generally target all use cases, just event prediction from a stream of anslytics events, which is a lot more constrained. Give it a try, it's pretty robust!


> Predictions are available for iOS and Android apps that include the Analytics SDK

Any plans to have this work for web apps?


Firebaser here! Its dependent on Google Analytics for Firebase one web - so, we need to get that in first!


So how is this particular feature priced? Is it set up so the analytics consumes cloud function CPU?


Its free!


To me it seems like Firebase essentially supports the cancer of the (app/software) industry:

Creating/buying an app, making it popular and drawing every last penny out of it while pissing off the core users who helped to make it popular and then letting it die. Rinse and repeat.

It helps you piss off the core/current users a little less to draw out the process as much as possible and make more profits, but the result is the same.

Using optimization strategies and software like Firebase disconnects you from the user base as you turn your users into the product. Of course this would come from Google who are experts at it. They get away with it though, because their software is great and there are few alternatives, but that's not the case in the app market.

/rant


If you're pissed at predictive modeling being used for apps, I assume you're incensed at predictive modeling being used in general marketing, where it's been in use for many decades?


I think that's a bit harsh. What if an app needs that revenue to stay alive due to back-end costs for example?




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