Interesting, I'd love to know what level this has escalated to behind the scenes - governmental? EU? If Merkel did a deal could the universities be forced to back down?
That is so far outside of their competence that I'm not sure how you constructed this absurd scenario. Why would Merkel be able to sign a contract on universities' behalf? The EU is pushing for more open access publishing, but the way it can do that is via regulation or adding it as a requirement to EU-funded research.
Elsevier no doubt contributes large amounts of money to the Dutch tax authorities. Governments pick up the phone about this type of thing all the time. There is ample evidence of deal making at the EU level - I'm thinking of the watering down of emissions legislation to benefit German car makers. I don't think it's far fetched at all to imagine a quid pro quo taking place behind the scenes. My question was partly around what kind of leverage Merkel might have down at the university level, as I have no knowledge about this.
The funny thing is that the EU has largely been pushing for more Open Access due to the Netherlands' EU presidency last year - the Netherlands was already taking the lead at that point.
Then again, the way the Open Access transition appears to be taking place right now seems like it could end up creating really nice profit margins for companies like Elsevier again, so maybe that was their plan all along.
The federal state is not supposed to meddle in education in Germany, policy is decided on Bundesländer-level. They frequently do anyways, but I don't think it's important enough to them to get involved in this case.