On: Stocks with Outperform Ratings Beat the Market

[hinkley]

This has the Texas Sharpshooter fallacy all over it. Shoot at the side of a barn and then put the bullseye where the most holes are.

Your number 3 is basically, "the ten people who did the best did better than everybody else" really? You don't say...

[youngprogrammer → hinkley]

This is nothing like the sharpshooter fallacy. The analysis determined the average performance of the analysts with >100 stocks rated and 10 analysts out of 16 did better than the rest.

[hinkley → youngprogrammer]

What? They removed all the outliers. They cooked the data to say something that made sense instead of something that was accurate.

[inglor → hinkley]

To be fair, looking at real data if you look at the 20 best analysts _one year ago_ they made a pretty decent margin (the article doesn't cover this). I can see if I can dig up some old charts if you're interested.