I think they still have a shot in mobile simply because there isn't as big of a barrier in switching platforms. Moving from iPhone to Android to WM7 might end up costing the average person $50 in apps over a period of years. One really good WM7 handset could totally change the market.
Personally I see the Android market is on track for much less diversity in the future. HTC and Motorola seem to be the only companies doing a really good job with Android. The big problem with Android is your handset maker can cut corners and give you a terrible product. Google doesn't do a whole lot to support OEMs besides a link to the source code and words of encouragement. Microsoft has lots of experience as an OEM software partner. The license fee may end up being a reasonable price for handset makers to pay to avoid some of the difficulty of developing an Android device.
Personally I see the Android market is on track for much less diversity in the future. HTC and Motorola seem to be the only companies doing a really good job with Android. The big problem with Android is your handset maker can cut corners and give you a terrible product. Google doesn't do a whole lot to support OEMs besides a link to the source code and words of encouragement. Microsoft has lots of experience as an OEM software partner. The license fee may end up being a reasonable price for handset makers to pay to avoid some of the difficulty of developing an Android device.