The problem with Microsoft isn't a lack of bright talent. It's "Who's Next?" People are jockeying for political positions, not concentrating on products. Ballmer won't be there forever and everyone wants to be the next Ballmer. If Steve Jobs passed away tomorrow, there could be similar jockeying at Apple -- we've already seen how product introductions lacking Jobs have been split up among several people. We don't know how many of those people got the idea from that experience that they could be "the next Jobs."
Jobs also once criticized company leadership in general (someone else can go find this), stating that what happens after a founder leaves is that a marketing person ascends to the top -- and he pointed to Ballmer as an example. It's interesting to note that Palm began to sink also when a marketing person was leading it -- Ed Colligan.
I don't know anything about Ives' business skills, but I'd worry that making him CEO would be promoting him to his level of incompetence. He's a fantastic designer, and I'd rather not see him distracted from that role.
But it might be wise for him to have final approval over product designs, the way Jobs presumably does now.
I think the most probable succession plan is to put Tim Cook in charge of the company with Ive in charge of design and aesthetics. Who has what job title is hard to predict.
Jobs also once criticized company leadership in general (someone else can go find this), stating that what happens after a founder leaves is that a marketing person ascends to the top -- and he pointed to Ballmer as an example. It's interesting to note that Palm began to sink also when a marketing person was leading it -- Ed Colligan.