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> Summary: beginners almost never invest well.

Investing in startups is closer to betting on horse races than stuff like the S&P 500 or buying bonds.

There're a lot of people who will sell you systems. There's a lot of form guides. In a booming economy more people take a flutter on the fillies. And every once a while a thoroughbred emerges that is simply unstoppable.

But in general, only the bookies win.

The main difference is that in horse racing you can bet on a single horse and in the course of a few races, you'll probably bet correctly and make a little scratch.

In startups you can only bet the trifecta: you'll probably never hit it in your entire life, but the payoff is much higher if you do.




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