Please show me how any of the ideas I've proposed can be exploited. I guess in theory all the people involved could be bribed - but that's already true in our current system! At least this distributes the process over many more people and vastly increases the number of people you need to bribe.
Let's try something and see what happens. It doesn't need to start with the government, even private businesses implementing these systems would be a great test bed. Then we can work out the flaws, if there are any. The potential benefits of improving our prediction making ability is enormous. This is a problem that, in an ideal world, our society would be devoting tons of resources to solve. The status quo sucks and we shouldn't just give up and accept it.
meredydd's specifically voicing concern with decision markets, not prediction markets. Hanson's Futarchy paper outlines the difference (alas, wikipedia unhelpfully treats them as synonyms).
Hanson's "Adventure 1" is quite a bit more specific than "improving our prediction making ability" (which of course could unlock tremendous value).
Let's try something and see what happens. It doesn't need to start with the government, even private businesses implementing these systems would be a great test bed. Then we can work out the flaws, if there are any. The potential benefits of improving our prediction making ability is enormous. This is a problem that, in an ideal world, our society would be devoting tons of resources to solve. The status quo sucks and we shouldn't just give up and accept it.