You don't need to decide which is expert is right. You need to know -- if it concerns you-- that there is a chance there will be a contraction in the Chinese economy. Economists predict this sometimes, and it gets news because when it is presented as a certainty it seems like news. The truth is it is always a risk, and probably more of a risk than it was ten years ago. As an average HNer it probably doesn't matter much either way, unless you are planning on investing in China or counting on no recessions in the US in the next ten years.
