Instagram Stories launched Q3'16. Going forward, growth is going to be flat, maybe even negative, now that every messenger service now has their own Stories clone.
> Going forward, growth is going to be flat, maybe even negative, now that every messenger service now has their own Stories clone.
This is my thinking as well. Stories was a good idea but there wasn't anything proprietary about it and now that a larger service (Instagram) copied it much better there isn't much point to using it on Snapchat anymore. I would imagine their users will continue using their silly filters and doing direct messaging but so many apps have built in filters now I don't know that it is a big enough differentiator anymore.
I think the performance of their stock is going to depend on how well they execute on a new product like spectacles.
While a very small market segment but I've noticed that my user demographic's snap story usage has been in rapid decline. The people whom I saw using snap stories the majority of time, have since cut their usage in half if not completely and switched to Instagram stories.
Going to be very interesting to see how they handle user growth & user engagement.
1) Teenage users, their bread and butter, are leaking out to Instagram
2) Older users, their growth market, are being "stolen" by the various messaging apps that they're already on (plus Instagram)
So now they have to simultaneously fend off Instagram draining their primary userbase, while also competing with all the popular messenger apps cloning their main product feature.
The latter is going to be just as difficult as the former. Overseas, WhatsApp (Europe), and WeChat and Line (Asia) are going to seize whatever int'l growth they were hoping to grab. In the US, chances are that if Stories catches-on with the older crowd, it'll be through either Instagram or the various messenger apps they're already on.
During the IPO roadshow, SNAP was trying to position itself as a media/entertainment company, but media companies will follow the audience, and it's hard to see them sticking it out with SNAP if viewership numbers falter.
Hard to see how they claw their way out of this. The comparisons to FB are poor IMO because they at least strong MAU growth going for it and no real viable competitors with an alternative product. Even the comparisons to Twitter are flawed. The doubly whammy of decline growth + decline revenue per user is creating the perfect storm for SNAP.
I personally don't see how it keeps going in the face of Instagram, though their filters are pretty cool. Instagram could copy that too of course, but it wouldn't have the same whimsy that Snapchat brings to the feature.
Q4'15 - 13.8%
Q1'16 - 14%
Q2'16 - 17.2%
Q3'16 - 7%
Q4'16 - 3.2%
Instagram Stories launched Q3'16. Going forward, growth is going to be flat, maybe even negative, now that every messenger service now has their own Stories clone.