I certainly agree that your better off throwing your full efforts at well, anything other than lotto tickets, is the better decision but it is extraordinarily unlikely in the example of music that you achieve something resembling a decent career regardless of talent and hardwork. More like you get more popular at parties.
It varies. My uncle had a band and toured the small venue scene in South Louisiana back in the day. My mom was a chorus singer in the New Orleans opera company.
Both made varying levels of careers out of their talents and hard work. Both were popular at parties.
The gap between a typical musician and a superstar is much larger than the gap between a programmer and tech company founder with a successful buyout.
It is entirely possible to be a professional musician and not make ends meet, it is entirely easy to be a shitty programmer and comfortably support a family with 3 kids.
Some fields just pay better. Doctors, Lawyers, Construction Managers, Programmers... will be better risks Singers, Painters, Professional Bowlers...
I'm perfectly willing to accept some scientific data on the subject in lieu of my anecdotal data if you have any.
In the absence of a lot of data, I make due with what I have and in general find the notion credible that working on being a successful musician has other benefits even if you don't achieve Taylor Swift levels of success.
