> 1% chance of exit at 600M valuation after those 5 years Ah, I see, I wouldn't ... | Hacker News

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alpha_squared on March 29, 2017 | parent | context | favorite | on: Big Tech Company Salaries Are Hurting Startups

> 1% chance of exit at 600M valuation after those 5 years

Ah, I see, I wouldn't have taken that into account since I'm not sure it quite works out that way. It seems you've intertwined probability with opportunity cost, is that correct?

EDIT: Thanks for the breakdown, by the way! I really appreciate the insight.

pbecotte on March 29, 2017 [–]

He did it correctly... Except he didn't account for the time value of money, which would have made the salary side even stronger.

timdierks on March 30, 2017 | [–]

This is the right math if he's stuck there for 5 years, but his opportunity cost is lower if he can exit the role earlier if the company isn't trending towards the exit he wants.

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