Yep, I think people are starting to realize that unless you are (a) a founder with 20-30% equity or (b) an early employee at one of the few startups that successfully exits for >$1B without any down rounds, your equity most likely will not be worth more than $100k. If your equity is only a $100k bonus after 7 years, it doesn't make as much sense monetarily to take a pay cut to work at the startup.
My friends and I discuss this all the time. There are always people trying to get us (software engineers) to join various startups around town/country, but the comparatively low salaries coupled with the exceptionally low possibility that any offered/granted equity will be "worth it" some day leads almost all of us to follow more traditional routes with companies that can pay us today, not MAYBE tomorrow.
Devs seem to be realizing this, at least the ones I know (new thing).
Seems the endgame's going to be higher equity grants. If VCs won't fund something unproven at 350/head and devs won't work for peanuts, higher equity grants seem the only option.
I think it'll be just like Hollywood, in that projects are evaluated as much for who they've managed to recruit (e.g. a movie with Brad Pitt is fundable) as on other business fundamentals.
It's striking how much of business views "labor" as ancillary to success. That might be true if you're running a pizza joint but it couldn't be farther from the truth building a software company, or making a movie.
> That might be true if you're running a pizza joint but it couldn't be farther from the truth building a software company, or making a movie.
Or starting a medical practice
Or starting a hedge fund
Or starting a law firm
It might be the most important thing for any new venture, across history. There is a good reason that the start of the story about Jason and the Golden Fleece describes assembling his crew of Argonauts.
This is very much aligned with what I have learned, and its only made worse by successful startups often taking 8+ years to exit with many more rounds than before. The stock incentives are aligned with the startup exiting in four years or dying.
