I find myself in agreement and in strong disagreement at the same time. My fear is your thesis is just an extended form of whistling in the graveyard.
Yes, these patterns you mention hold true, and we'd be fools not to acknowledge them, but there's another pattern that you're missing out on: each generation of distraction devices is more engaging and more adaptive. Don't like what's playing in the symphony hall? Go down the street. Painful but doable. Don't like what's on the radio? Twist the dial. Much easier.
So it's not simply that mankind invents some cool new whizbang and then an entire generation zonks out, it's that mankind gets better and better at inventing Whizbangs that are more difficult to zonk out from. So let's assume, and I really hope you're right, that the pattern holds and 40 years from now we see some new rebirth in institutions and inventions. This round was more painful than the last. Much more painful. And the next round will be worse still. As AI slowly grows, it's going to go after the youth; the old folks are already hosed. So really it's game over once we find a way to hook new generations as they come along and keep them hooked.
Those other waves didn't work like this. I'd argue we're either already there -- or within 100 years of it happening. So yes, it's a beautiful thought and I wish you the best. I just can't find it in me to think of this as being a winning argument overall. In fact, your examples like Gilligan's Island are actually reverse examples. Cost of production of niche entertainment content means fewer people make less money targeting smaller audience segments. Doesn't take a genius to figure out that we're headed for machine-created custom content geared to the individual. Things automate. Digital things automate faster. This cyclical thing where new stuff comes along and distracts a generation will become continuous. The only question is when.
Is it actually getting more painful? The last round ended with a worldwide depression and the deaths of 60 million people, including two atom bombs. (I'm counting TV & radio as part of this round; the distractions in the last one included rum-running, flapper girls & jazz.) And as a percentage of population, even that was a fair bit less severe than crises of years past; even including WW2, there's a clear downward trend in number of war deaths per capita [1].
I think what you're describing is the hedonic treadmill. Happiness isn't designed, evolutionarily, to make us happy. It's designed to make us repeat the behaviors that led to our ancestors passing on their genes. So TV holds our attention because in our ancestral past, paying attention to moving objects was critical to our survival. Alcohol holds our attention because in the slightly-more-recent-past, drinking alcohol-laced water was a good way to ensure that pathogens in the water were killed. Sex & porn hold our attention because...well, self-explanatory. Nowadays, mindlessly clicking through Buzzfeed & HN holds our attention because in recent years paying attention to social trends has been critical for survival.
On a personal level, the way to achieve enlightenment is to realize that happiness is a construct of our genes & environment, and to decide to be happy regardless. Whistling in the graveyard, in other words. On a societal level, those addictive behaviors that don't actually lead to better survival will get flushed out of the gene/meme pool in the next major crisis, much like how past pasttimes like jousting, duels, and blood-feuds (and soon tobacco & fast food) became passe when they no longer led to status or survival.
I find myself in agreement and in strong disagreement at the same time. My fear is your thesis is just an extended form of whistling in the graveyard.
Yes, these patterns you mention hold true, and we'd be fools not to acknowledge them, but there's another pattern that you're missing out on: each generation of distraction devices is more engaging and more adaptive. Don't like what's playing in the symphony hall? Go down the street. Painful but doable. Don't like what's on the radio? Twist the dial. Much easier.
So it's not simply that mankind invents some cool new whizbang and then an entire generation zonks out, it's that mankind gets better and better at inventing Whizbangs that are more difficult to zonk out from. So let's assume, and I really hope you're right, that the pattern holds and 40 years from now we see some new rebirth in institutions and inventions. This round was more painful than the last. Much more painful. And the next round will be worse still. As AI slowly grows, it's going to go after the youth; the old folks are already hosed. So really it's game over once we find a way to hook new generations as they come along and keep them hooked.
Those other waves didn't work like this. I'd argue we're either already there -- or within 100 years of it happening. So yes, it's a beautiful thought and I wish you the best. I just can't find it in me to think of this as being a winning argument overall. In fact, your examples like Gilligan's Island are actually reverse examples. Cost of production of niche entertainment content means fewer people make less money targeting smaller audience segments. Doesn't take a genius to figure out that we're headed for machine-created custom content geared to the individual. Things automate. Digital things automate faster. This cyclical thing where new stuff comes along and distracts a generation will become continuous. The only question is when.