In looking around it seems reasonable to assume around 2,000 riders per hour on average.
Nope. Most riders are on the train at the same time most drivers are on the freeways -- during morning and evening rush hours. And that's also when Caltrain runs most of its trains -- outside of the rush-hour periods, they only run one train per hour in each direction, while during rush hour you see a train more like every 15 minutes.
So you do need to move most of those 65,000 people all in a short time period, which means any road-based alternative will just be contributing to the already-bad congestion on the roads at those hours, and will need its entire fleet mobilized during the rush hours in order to try to keep up with demand.
Nope. Most riders are on the train at the same time most drivers are on the freeways -- during morning and evening rush hours. And that's also when Caltrain runs most of its trains -- outside of the rush-hour periods, they only run one train per hour in each direction, while during rush hour you see a train more like every 15 minutes.
So you do need to move most of those 65,000 people all in a short time period, which means any road-based alternative will just be contributing to the already-bad congestion on the roads at those hours, and will need its entire fleet mobilized during the rush hours in order to try to keep up with demand.