Firstly, the Grauniad is hardly an unbiased source these days, sadly. Secondly excuse me if I'm sceptical about the predictions of economists. Thirdly, your second source trots out a tired myth of remainers - that leaving the EU means we will not be able to fill low skilled work. It means nothing of the sort - it just means that we can choose what low skilled workers we let in, and if we want to continue to offer EU citizens seasonal work in the agricultural sector, nothing about Brexit prevents that. Fourth, your third source contains only predictions about the return of Polish citizens. Finally, your fourth source reflects a mixed picture - headlined 'Net migration to UK falls sharply after Brexit vote', we then find the following comments later on:
'Home Office figures show that the number of EU nationals in Britain who had their applications processed for UK residence documents to secure their individual status more than doubled from 92,289 in 2015 to 201,287 in 2016. More than 140,000 were successful.'
'Work continues to prove the main driver for near-record levels of immigration, particularly from within the EU, whose citizens accounted for 180,000 of the 294,000 who came to Britain to work in the year to September'
..so overall, far from a conclusive rebuttal of my points.
> the Grauniad is hardly an unbiased source these days
The surveys in question were compiled by Markit.
> we can choose what low skilled workers we let in
You seem to have missed the point: they don't want in, they are already leaving:
The June 23 referendum vote to leave the EU has already affected Gorton’s business: About 10 of his Eastern European employees have gone home.
“They were coming to us the next day and saying, ‘Crikey, this is not good for us, we’re not wanted in the U.K.,”’ he said. “Within a week of the vote, we saw people leave and go back to Poland and Lithuania. Ever since then, it’s become a lot harder to find the people we need.”
> your third source contains only predictions about the return of Polish citizens
Based on trends already observed.
> your fourth source reflects a mixed picture
Because it covers the period in the year to September, i.e. only 3 months after the referendum vs 9 preceding it. The trend break is quite visible in the chart:
> the Grauniad is hardly an unbiased source these days
The surveys in question were compiled by Markit.
>> Sure, and I'll bet it's possible to find statistics that prove the opposite if you look hard enough. Not to mention the fact that as things change, so the country will adapt.
> we can choose what low skilled workers we let in
You seem to have missed the point: they don't want in, they are already leaving:
The June 23 referendum vote to leave the EU has already affected Gorton’s business: About 10 of his Eastern European employees have gone home.
“They were coming to us the next day and saying, ‘Crikey, this is not good for us, we’re not wanted in the U.K.,”’ he said. “Within a week of the vote, we saw people leave and go back to Poland and Lithuania. Ever since then, it’s become a lot harder to find the people we need.”
>> So then we have to pay a little more for our fruit and veg. I'd be more than happy to do this if it means we are not sending billions in CAP money towards preserving the bucolic complacency of rural France.
> your third source contains only predictions about the return of Polish citizens
Based on trends already observed.
>> Oh no, the Poles are going! Well I suppose that means indigenous Brits will be able to see their doctor in a timely manner, and the first language in our school classes might revert to English again, etc.
> your fourth source reflects a mixed picture
Because it covers the period in the year to September, i.e. only 3 months after the referendum vs 9 preceding it. The trend break is quite visible in the chart:
'Home Office figures show that the number of EU nationals in Britain who had their applications processed for UK residence documents to secure their individual status more than doubled from 92,289 in 2015 to 201,287 in 2016. More than 140,000 were successful.'
'Work continues to prove the main driver for near-record levels of immigration, particularly from within the EU, whose citizens accounted for 180,000 of the 294,000 who came to Britain to work in the year to September'
..so overall, far from a conclusive rebuttal of my points.