There was a brief desire to start an independence movement for London... It might very well happen (starting a group, not independence itself - if that ever happens it'll be decades) if Brexit gets too nasty and Scotland leaves and causes rest-UK to be even more hostile to our concerns.
London independence would surely only come with the complete collapse of the UK. Or it becoming an EU-like organisation. And that's not entirely impossible - there are enough regional independence movements that it's possible to imagine it.
Much more likely, though, is that everyone argues about it for decades and nothing happens.
It looks like the Cymraeg [language] loving Welsh-nationalists are likely to press for all schools to become Cymraeg language and demand all businesses to move that way too. That should push taxation to new levels, reduce school achievement further, and retard international businesses from entering/remaining in Wales.
Given the North-South divide in Wales (even amongst Cymraeg speakers) I'd expect the massive demographic differences to push it back to the pre-annexation days where Gwynedd in the North was the central power (due to Irish/Viking immigrants after the Roman exit AFAICT!). Cymraeg speakers in the low-population North will break away and enter an economy propped up by tourism. The South-East is 90% English speaking, has three-quarters of the population and relies on the M4 corridor for a lot of its economy it's staying close to England one way or another.
In short Wales is already starting to pull itself apart. The low-income Welsh people who benefited a lot from EU schemes [eg in The Valleys (S.E.)] voted to Leave though, I don't think they'd try to follow Scotland back to the EU. However there's still an undercurrent of "we were conquered by the English and will hate them forever".
An oft-overlooked factor that interests me is the Crown - what have they got to say about it all. I assume they're keeping their beaks out to ensure they keep Crown money and property but along with all of this it strikes me if they aren't going to retain a political union of "their" lands then there's no longer a regent in even the hands-off sense we have in the UK today.
Why you'd throw off rule of the Queen's government and choose to stay being Her subject is beyond me.
Northern Ireland is a very tricky issue. Despite the majority in vote against Brexit, there is an almost 50/50 divide between pro-british unionists and pro-irish nationalists. As far as I understand it, the government in Belfast has been a close cooperation between both sides since 1998. If that cooperation breaks down no one knows what is about to happen, but many fear that the violence of the 'Troubles' might return, a prospect no one but the extreme hardliners really want.
So, I don't think it is as simple as: 'Northern Ireland is quite likely to join Ireland'.
From friends and acquaintances in Northern Ireland, some of the unionists are wondering just why they're in favour of a maintaining a union, when the other side is either against them (anti-EU), or doesn't much care (the perception that people in Great Britain don't follow much news on NI).
Is it Schadenfreude to realise that as much as I loathe this that once we hit the tipping point and all the property investors give up on London I'll be able to afford to live there.
> Northern Ireland is quite likely to join Ireland
I sort of wish that were the case. The reality is likely to be a lot more problematic than "quite likely", and has every danger of becoming quite violent, to boot.
Not sure where the "Northern Ireland is quite likely to join Ireland" is coming from. The longstanding narrow majority in favour of the Union in N.Ireland was heavily skewed towards Leave, and the country's political map is defined far more by sectarian concepts of political identity shaped by decades of hostilities than pragmatic concerns about trade links.
London independence is more likely to be used as leverage for more devolution than to actually achieve independence. Sadiq Khan has already brought it up in support of devolution of more powers to London.
But any kind of devolution for London that makes much difference will end up increasing divisions, and increase the odds the UK fractures further. I have a hard time picturing a UK 30 years from now without imagining a Westminster that has devolved away most of its powers.
Even then, I suspect Scotland will still leave sooner or later, and possibly Northern Ireland too.
There was a brief desire to start an independence movement for London... It might very well happen (starting a group, not independence itself - if that ever happens it'll be decades) if Brexit gets too nasty and Scotland leaves and causes rest-UK to be even more hostile to our concerns.