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These predictions are pointless. Economy is not driven by extrapolating past charts, it's driven by outlier events. The thing about outlier events is that no one can predict what they would be, except that they are bound to happen. A magnitude 9 earthquake in Northwest, fraud in big company, scandal in administration, or war with Iran - all these can totally change economic outlook.



His assertion is that the Fed is now better at controlling the money supply to more quickly respond appropriately to outlier events.

Recessions are always and everywhere a monetary phenomena.




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